243
FXUS02 KWBC 310701
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 AM EDT SUN MAR 31 2024
VALID 12Z WED APR 03 2024 - 12Z SUN APR 07 2024
...MAJOR NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM INTO WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH
MARITIME HAZARDS AND HIGH WIND/COASTAL FLOODING/RAINFALL THREATS
ALONG WITH AN INLAND HEAVY SNOW THREAT...
...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION/COOLING PATTERN FOR THE WEST MIDWEEK-
LATE WEEK TO EXPAND INTO THE PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND...
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODEL, ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER EXTENT 18 UTC GFS/GEFS CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS CHECK-IN REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH THE MID-LARGER
SCALE FLOW EVOLUTION AND MAIN FLOW EMBEDDED WEATHER SYSTEMS SLATED
TO IMPACT THE LOWER 48 AND VICINITY NEXT WEEK IN A STORMY PATTERN
WITH ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY DESPITE SOME LINGERING SYSTEM TIMING
AND TRACK VARIANCES. PREFER A MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND WITH
EMPHASIS APPLIED TO THE 12 UTC ECMWF GIVEN BEST ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.
THIS BLEND TENDS TO PROVIDE DETAIL WHILE REASONABLY MITIGATING
THESE DIFFERENCES CONSISTENT WITH INDIVIDUAL PREDICTABILITY. LATEST 00
UTC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY IN LINE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY IS WELL MAINTAINED WITH THIS PLAN.
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S., WITH NEW ENGLAND TO BE MOST STRONGLY IMPACTED WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT NOR'EASTER INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
PRESENT A THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING/HEAVY RAINS AND INLAND HEAVY
SNOWS AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE WPC WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK. WHILE SNOW
WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE INLAND, PROTRACTED FETCH
OFF THE ATLANTIC WITH THIS DEEP LOW MAY KEEP NEAR COASTAL AREAS
WARM ENOUGH NEAR THE GROUND FOR SLEET AND HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN WET
AMBIENT SOILS, INTRODUCED A DAY4/WEDNESDAY WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK MARGINAL THREAT AREA FOR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, MODELS SHOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS THE DEEP LOW SLOWLY PULLS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST AND THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST. THIS STRONGLY AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AND LEADING
AND WAVY COLD FRONT/SECONDARY CANADIAN COLD SURGE DIGGING INTO THE
WEST SHOULD ACT TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND SPREAD ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AND WINDY/UNSETTLED FLOW TO INCLUDE COASTAL RAINS
DOWN THROUGH CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD WITH INTERIOR
AND TERRAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOWS INCREASINGLY INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WEST MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEPICTED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
CURRENTLY ON THE MODEST TO MODERATE SIDE GIVEN TRACK/MOISTURE, BUT
AMPLE UPPER SUPPORT AND FAVORED TERRAIN LIFT MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVIER FOCUS AND ACTIVITY TO MONITOR. THE WPC WINTER WEATHER
OUTLOOK SHOWS THE GREATEST SNOW PROBABILITIES OVER NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN/ROCKIES TERRAIN/MOUNTAINS. ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS LATER NEXT WEEKEND WITH SYSTEM SLOW
PROGRESSION AND CYCLOGENESIS AND FRONTOGENESIS.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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