675
FXUS01 KWBC 310800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SUN MAR 31 2024
VALID 12Z SUN MAR 31 2024 - 12Z TUE APR 02 2024
...HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING,
NEVADA, COLORADO, UTAH, AND ARIZONA...
...THERE IS A SIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF OVER
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS ON MONDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS ON SUNDAY; THERE IS AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, AND OHIO VALLEYS ON MONDAY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
BE QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE FROM THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY, CREATING
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. FARTHER EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY.
ON MONDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, AND OHIO VALLEYS.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI, AND OHIO VALLEYS FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. MOREOVER, THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF EF2 TO EF5
TORNADOS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF
HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER IN SIZE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS FROM MONDAY
TO TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND
SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE. LIKEWISE, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS A MARGINAL RISK
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF AND BURN
SCARS. IN ADDITION, THE MOISTURE STREAMED INLAND DUE TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL AID IN
CREATING HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING, NEVADA,
COLORADO, UTAH, AND ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL LINGER OVER PARTS OF UTAH, ARIZONA, COLORADO, AND NEW MEXICO
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, ENDING ON
TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE SNOW WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND END OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
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