066
FXUS01 KWBC 312001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SUN MAR 31 2024
VALID 00Z MON APR 01 2024 - 00Z WED APR 03 2024
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY...
...ANOTHER CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY...
...ADVANCING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORM
CHANCES TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW IN THE WEST WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING AS WELL A
RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A DEEP,
ENERGETIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. INCREASED
HEIGHT FALLS WILL HELP TO DEEPEN/ORGANIZE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH INCREASED
FLOW HELPING TO REINFORCE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO
VALLEY AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRST
EXPAND IN COVERAGE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC AS MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. ENOUGH SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THAT A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) IN PLACE FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
EXIST HERE AS WELL, EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY,
AS HEAVY RAIN MAY HAVE THE TENDENCY TO REPEAT OVER AREAS AS THEY
RUN PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.
ANOTHER DAY OF RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF AS WELL AS THE ARRIVAL OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY WILL BRING A MUCH
BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST-WEST
BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI WEST THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASING BUOYANCY AND UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ARRIVES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED
RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE CHANCE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. SOME MORE
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
TEXAS, WITH A SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE. A SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS EASTWARD
AS WELL THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE SOME ISOLATED DAYTIME STORMS
AS WELL AS THE ARRIVAL OF STORMS UPSTREAM OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/PLAINS AS THEY GROW UPSCALE INTO A LARGER
COMPLEX WILL BRING THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AS WELL AS SOME
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. BY EVENING, INCREASING STORM
COVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN ORGANIZED
COMPLEX OF STORMS, AS WELL AS THE TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL LEAD TO A HIGHER CHANCE OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS AND SOME SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING,
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING, VERY
STRONG UPWARDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 75 MPH
COMBINED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS BEGIN THE DRYLINE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS HAVE PROMPTED ANOTHER CRITICAL RISK OF
FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MONDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED
ANOTHER ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. A MORE ISOLATED THREAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, AS WELL AS EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC, WITH SLIGHT RISKS IN PLACE. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST AS WELL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC, THOUGH THE INCREASING STORM SPEED
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS
LOWER THAN ON MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE, A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE
COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL/VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATION
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS THE DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA, AND
SOME ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST OVER THE RANGES OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO EARLY
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOWERS WILL EXPAND FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST TUESDAY WITH THE EASTERN U.S.
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE-WISE, WARM, MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE MOST LIKELY FOR EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
INITIALLY REMAIN MUCH BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WEST UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
HOWEVER, AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST, MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND FROM THE WEST COAST EASTWARD
INTO PORTIONS THE INTERIOR WEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY.
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