278
FXUS01 KWBC 312018
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
417 PM EDT SUN MAR 31 2024
VALID 00Z MON APR 01 2024 - 00Z WED APR 03 2024
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS MONDAY...
...ANOTHER CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY...
...ADVANCING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORM
CHANCES TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE WEST, WITH LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW, CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING AS WELL A
RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A DEEP,
ENERGETIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. INCREASED
HEIGHT FALLS WILL HELP TO DEEPEN/ORGANIZE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH INCREASED
FLOW HELPING TO REINFORCE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS AND
A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRST EXPAND IN
COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC AS MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ENOUGH SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT
THAT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) IN PLACE
FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL EXIST HERE AS WELL, EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY, AS HEAVY RAIN MAY HAVE THE TENDENCY TO REPEAT
OVER AREAS AS STORMS RUN PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.
ANOTHER DAY OF RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF AS WELL AS THE ARRIVAL OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY WILL BRING A MUCH
BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST-WEST
BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI WEST THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASING BUOYANCY AND UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER
FOR THE CHANCE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES. SOME MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS, WITH A SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE. A SLIGHT
RISK ALSO EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE SOME
ISOLATED DAYTIME STORMS AND THE ARRIVAL OF STORMS GROWING UPSCALE
UPSTREAM OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/PLAINS WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS, AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES. BY EVENING, INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS,
AS WELL AS THE TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WILL LEAD TO A HIGHER CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS AND SOME SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IN PLACE. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING, VERY STRONG WINDS UPWARDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 75 MPH, COMBINED WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE DRYLINE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS HAVE PROMPTED ANOTHER CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL
2/3) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MONDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED
ANOTHER ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. A MORE ISOLATED THREAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, AS WELL AS EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC, WITH SLIGHT RISKS IN PLACE. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC, THOUGH THE INCREASING STORM SPEED AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS LOWER THAN ON MONDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL EXPAND FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY AS
WELL.
ELSEWHERE, A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE
COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL/VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATION
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS THE DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA, AND
SOME ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST OVER THE RANGES OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO EARLY
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURE-WISE, WARM, MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE MOST LIKELY FOR EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
INITIALLY REMAIN MUCH BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WEST UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
HOWEVER, AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST, MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND FROM THE WEST COAST EASTWARD
INTO PORTIONS THE INTERIOR WEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY.
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