554
FXUS02 KWBC 010700
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT MON APR 1 2024
VALID 12Z THU APR 04 2024 - 12Z MON APR 08 2024
...MAJOR NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM WITH MARITIME HAZARDS AND HIGH
WIND/COASTAL FLOODING ALONG WITH NORTHEAST HEAVY SNOW INTO THURSDAY...
...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION/COOLING PATTERN FOR THE WEST INTO LATE
WEEK TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODEL AND MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS SEEM BEST CLUSTERED WITH THE MID-LARGER SCALE FLOW
EVOLUTION AND MAIN FLOW EMBEDDED WEATHER SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT
THE LOWER 48 AND VICINITY THIS WEEK IN A STORMY PATTERN WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY DESPITE SOME LINGERING SYSTEM
TIMING AND TRACK VARIANCES. PREFER A MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND
WITH EMPHASIS APPLIED TO THE 12 UTC ECMWF INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN
BEST ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND CONTINUITY. THIS BLEND TENDS TO PROVIDE
DECENT DETAIL WHILE REASONABLY MITIGATING GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES
CONSISTENT WITH INDIVIDUAL PREDICTABILITY. THE LATEST 00 UTC MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS REMAIN GENERALLY IN LINE. WPC PRODUCT
CONTINUITY IS ALSO WELL MAINTAINED WITH THIS FORECAST PLAN.
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A MAJOR NOR'EASTER WILL PRESENT A THREAT FOR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT WRAP-BACK EARLY SPRING HEAVY
SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THAY WILL PERSIST THURSDAY WITH POTENT
CLOSED UPPER TROUGH ROTATION AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE WPC WINTER
WEATHER OUTLOOK. WHILE SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE
INLAND, PROTRACTED FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WITH THIS DEEP LOW MAY
KEEP NEAR COASTAL AREAS WARM ENOUGH NEAR THE GROUND FOR SLEET AND
RAIN. THE HEAVIEST OF THE WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES MEANWHILE SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
PATTERN ALSO UPSTREAM ACROSS THE U.S. LATER WEEK WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. AND POTENT UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING DOWN THE WEST
COAST. THIS STRONGLY AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AND LEADING
AND WAVY COLD FRONT/SECONDARY CANADIAN COLD SURGE DIGGING INTO THE
WEST WILL ACT TO COOL TEMPERATURES. THIS MAY RISK RECORD COLD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SPREAD OF
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND WINDY/UNSETTLED FLOW WILL INCLUDE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH CALIFORNIA RAINS CLOSER TO COASTAL AREAS
ALONG WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD FAVORABLE FOR TERRAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOWS
INCREASINGLY INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST LATER WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND HEIGHT FALLS SHIFT ROBUSTLY
INLAND. THE ENERGY WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LEAD RETURN CONDUIT OF
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. THIS WILL INITIATE AND SPREAD ORGANIZED
MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BROAD REGION WITH
CYCLOGENESIS/FRONTOGENESIS AS NEW PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM
ENERGIES AGAIN DIG BACK DOWN OVER THE WEST COAST.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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