877
FXUS01 KWBC 010801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
401 AM EDT MON APR 01 2024
VALID 12Z MON APR 01 2024 - 12Z WED APR 03 2024
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, AND OHIO VALLEYS ON
MONDAY AND OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A SIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF OVER
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND
OVER EASTERN OHIO, TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON
TUESDAY...
...SNOW WINDS DOWN OVER PARTS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING,
NEVADA, COLORADO, UTAH, AND ARIZONA ON MONDAY; LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE L.P. OF MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FROM THE
LOW ON THE WESTERN END OF THE STATIONARY FRONT, A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THAT
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, THE APPALACHIANS, AND
THE EASTERN GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY, CREATING SHOWERS AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A FEW TORNADOES. BESIDES, THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF EF2 TO
EF5 TORNADOS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF
HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER IN SIZE OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FARTHER EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY.
FURTHERMORE, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO
VALLEYS, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST
VULNERABLE. LIKEWISE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND INTO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN AND MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES TO PARTS OF
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
SIMILARLY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO, TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO, TENNESSEE
VALLEYS, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL
STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MEANWHILE, ON MONDAY, UNDER THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY, THE SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WYOMING, NEVADA, COLORADO, UTAH, AND ARIZONA WILL START TO WIND
DOWN. ALSO, THE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER UTAH, ARIZONA, AND
NEW MEXICO WILL COME TO AN END BY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY,
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND END OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE LOW
WILL CREATE SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN, WISCONSIN,
AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE L.P. OF MICHIGAN FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. FURTHER, RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO
PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE L.P. OF
MICHIGAN.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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