735
FXCA20 KWBC 011919
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
318 PM EDT MON APR 01 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 01 APR 2024 AT 1915 UTC: ON MONDAY...A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND
REACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEEP
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF OAXACA...AND
EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...AND NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION FROM
CHIHUAHUA INTO SINALOA....AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS BEING ADVECTED OVER
THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION...INTERACTING WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AND FAVORING PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST MEXICO ON MONDAY. WEST
CHIHUAHUA AND EAST SONORA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. WEST
SONORA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST...EXTENDING OVER TEXAS...AND INTO NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA/SONORA.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FAVOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES ON
MONDAY...AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED OVER LOUISIANA...THE WEST GULF
OF MEXICO...AND INTO NORTHERN VERACRUZ ON TUESDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15MM IN THE
CENTRAL SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL REGION ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ENTERING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BECOMING STATIONARY IN CENTRAL
GUATEMALA...AND INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/EAST OAXACA/WEST
CHIAPAS...AND GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN PUEBLA/NORTH
OAXACA...AND BELIZE/CENTRAL GUATEMALA. THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WILL FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND RAINFALL WITH MAXIMA OF 10MM.
IN THE CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...POTENT
MID TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE WEST
CARIBBEAN. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHING PANAMA ON MONDAY.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MOIST PLUMES FROM DISSIPATED FRONTS ARE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE TRADES AND WILL BE FAVORING OROGRAPHIC LIFT
OVER VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
PARTICULARLY...NICARAGUA...THE LESSER ANTILLES....HISPANIOLA...AND
PUERTO RICO/VI. ON MONDAY...FROM BARBADOS AND ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...TO TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN BELOW 15MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED MAXIMA
REMAINING BELOW 15MM.
IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...THE UPPER LEVEL IS SEEING FAVORABLE UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OVER COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...AND
PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS IN PART
DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO
PANAMA ON MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND
POSITION ITS BASE OVER CENTRAL COLOMBIA ON TUESDAY...AND OVER
VENEZUELA ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
INTERACT WITH THE PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH LOCATED FURTHER
SOUTH IN WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...A KELVIN WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION IN NORTH SOUTH
AMERICA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE PASSING OF AN EASTERLY WAVE
OVER SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...EAST COLOMBIA...AND NORTHWEST
AMAZONAS-BRASIL WILL BRING MOISTURE TO THE REGION AND FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. A MOIST PLUME REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
VENEZUELA....WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. INCREASED HUMIDITY
ALONG THE ANDES REGION IN COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN WEST COLOMBIA WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ELSEWHERE EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN NORTHERN BRASIL AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ON TUESDAY...THE
EASTERLY WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE DEFINITION OVER CENTRAL
COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
WAVE CONTINUES WEST...IT WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. WESTERN ECUADOR WILL SEE FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
THAT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
REGION...EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE REMNANTS CONTINUE OVER
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. THE REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
FROM SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...TO NORTHERN PERU...AND NORTHERN ECUADOR
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SOUTHWEST ECUADOR WILL SEE FAVORABLE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ELSEWHERE
IN THE REGION EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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