775
FXUS01 KWBC 020801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
401 AM EDT TUE APR 02 2024
VALID 12Z TUE APR 02 2024 - 12Z THU APR 04 2024
...HEAVY SNOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY; HEAVY SNOW OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEYS ON TUESDAY AND TWO AREAS OF SLIGHT RISK OVER
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES, OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...
A DEEP STORM OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL
MOVE TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
A LARGE, LONG-DURATION WINTER STORM, PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
LATE-SEASON HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
NORTHEAST FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ARE
FORECAST TO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW. HEAVY SNOW WILL HAVE A 60 TO 70
PERCENT LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPING OVER WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY EVENING
AND EXPANDING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA
OF MICHIGAN, BEFORE ENDING ON THURSDAY.
THE SAME STORM WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST SNOW AND WIND
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. SECONDARY LOW-PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL HAVE A 60 TO 70 PERCENT LIKELIHOOD OF
BRINGING HEAVY, WET SNOW AND SOME SLEET TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM HEAVY SNOW AND WIND, AND THE
COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW RATES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE A 60
TO 70 PERCENT LIKELIHOOD OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY
AND SNOW-COVERED ROADS. THE WET SNOW AND HIGH SNOW LOAD MAY ALSO
DAMAGE TREES AND IMPACT INFRASTRUCTURE.
MOREOVER, ALONG THE ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE OHIO/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, SHOWERS AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5)
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF EF2
†EF5 TORNADOS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER PARTS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SMALL PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FURTHER, THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF TWO-INCH OR GREATER HAIL
OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN
AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER TWO AREAS AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5)
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A
SECOND AREA OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A FEW TORNADOES.
HOWEVER, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED TO A
MARGINAL RISK OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD
TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BY THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL CREATE COASTAL RAIN AND
HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION, GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page