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FXCA20 KWBC 021219
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
818 AM EDT TUE APR 02 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI APR 02/12UTC:
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT AN INCREASING MOISTURE TREND WILL BEGIN BY THURSDAY
EVENING...AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS WILL ALSO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PERIOD WITH THE LOWEST
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND THE
HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOME RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL START TO MOVE
NORTH AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE THE LOCAL WINDS
WILL ALSO START TO GRADUALLY HAVE AN ESE COMPONENT BY FRIDAY AND
SE BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...AND SOME TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND ALLOW A
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN STARTING ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THERE IS ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY WITH ITS
AXIS OVER THE USVI. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE EAST AND REMAIN
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE AXIS WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF THE USVI LATER THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
EAST FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS GET CLOSER TO PR/USVI LATER
ON...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF PR/USVI...ALONG 20N OR SO.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL FORECAST SUGGESTS NEAR 0.75 TO 1 INCH FOR
THE NORTHERN MUNICIPALITIES OF PR. NEAR 0.25 TO AROUND 0.50 INCHES
ARE FORECAST FOR THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. BETWEEN 0.10 AND
0.25 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL PR...AND
JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES OVER WESTERN TO SOUTHWESTERN PR...MOSTLY DUE
TO THE POSSIBILITY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COMBINATION
OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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