865
FXCA20 KWBC 021425
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1024 AM EDT TUE APR 02 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 02 APR 2024 AT 1430 UTC: OVER PORTIONS OF
MEXICO...AND CENTRAL AMERICA...AN ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
KELVIN WAVE IS FORECAST TO BE EMBEDDED IN A CONVERGENT PHASE OF
THE MJO ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
KELVIN WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA BY THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE EFFECTS OF THE CONVERGENT MJO PHASE IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OVER THE FORECAST REGION.
A POTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF OAXACA...AND EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...INTO THE
BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND INTO NORTH COSTA RICA. TO THE
NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PORTION OF MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE LOWER
LEVELS IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA...INTO THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...AND ENTERING INTO SOUTH TAMAULIPAS/NORTH
VERACRUZ...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTHERN SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FROM
THIS FRONT ON MONDAY. PORTIONS OF SAN LUIS POTOSI/HIDALGO CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE POTENT RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS LIMITING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS BELOW
35MM...WHERE THE LARGEST VALUES ARE EXPECTED FROM MOISTURE PLUMES
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS AND REACHING LAND. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15MM. THE EXCEPTION ARE THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...WHERE INCREASED LEVELS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
OVER 50MM ARE REACHING THE REGION DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF A
DISSIPATED FRONT IN THE TRADE WINDS. THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ENTERING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE NORTH OF
GUATEMALA...INTO CHIAPAS...OAXACA...AND ALONG SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.
THE FRONT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN CHIAPAS/TABASCO...AND
CENTRAL GUATEMALA/SOUTH BELIZE. MAXIMA OF 15MM ARE EXPECTED IN
CENTRAL VERACRUZ...QUINTANA ROO...WEST CUBA...AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN HAITI...SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...WEST
PANAMA...AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...EXPECT MAXIMA
BELOW 15MM. ON THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...AND INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA....STAYING STATIONARY IN CHIAPAS/TABASCO/OAXACA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND EXTENDS
INTO NORTHWEST HONDURAS. THIS TROUGH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
IN EASTERN BELIZE...AND WEST HONDURAS. SOUTHERN CHIAPAS/SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. A
MAXIMA OF 15MM IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA...AND MAXIMA OF
15MM IN EAST PANAMA.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...EXPECT PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENT
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH/SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE IN
SOUTH AMERICA.THIS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A TROPOSPHERIC
KELVIN WAVE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES...WHICH
LIMITS THE CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. LIMITED DETAIL IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST...WHICH
SHOWS 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL COLOMBIA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THESE
POTENTIAL AMOUNTS EXPAND TO MOST OF COLOMBIA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES IS ENTERING TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO AND EASTERN VENEZUELA. AS THIS INTERACTS WITH THE BASE OF A
POTENT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...DEEP CONVECTION
IS FLARING IN THESE REGIONS AND IN FAR NORTHERN GUYANA. AS THIS
MOIST AIR MASS MOVES INLAND LATER ON TUESDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. POSITIVE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MOIST
PLUME AND UPPER TROUGH DECREASES LATER...TO FAVOR A DECREASE IN
MAXIMA TO 15MM/DAY BY WEDNESDAY AND A FURTHER DECREASE THEREAFTER.
IN THE GUIANAS...A MOIST PLUME IN THE TRADES IS FORECAST TO ENTER
ON THURSDAY...TO FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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