008
FXUS02 KWBC 030715
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
315 AM EDT WED APR 3 2024
VALID 12Z SAT APR 06 2024 - 12Z WED APR 10 2024
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STEADFAST WITH DEVELOPMENT OF AN OMEGA STYLE BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S. BY LATER THIS WEEK AS HIGHLIGHTED
BY SATURDAY BY AMPLIFIED CLOSED UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE WEST AND
THE NORTHEAST THAT SANDWICH A CENTRAL NATION UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER,
THIS PATTERN IS SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE NORTHEAST LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD TO OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., KICKED OUT AS NEW CLOSED UPPER TROUGHING DIGS
DOWN THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH THIS OVERALL,
BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. EVEN SO, THERE ARE STILL VARIED
DEPICTIONS OF COMPLICATED SYSTEM INTERACTIONS INTO NEXT WEEK OUT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. THAT HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR FRONTS,
PRECIPITATION, AND CLOUD COVER, WHICH COULD AFFECT VIEWING
CONDITIONS FOR THE TOTAL SOLAR ECLIPSE ON MONDAY. FORECAST SPREAD
IS ALSO MORE APPARENT NEXT WEEK WITH THE ULTIMATE EJECTION TIMING
INTO THE PLAINS OF THE KICKER CLOSED LOW SET TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND LATE PERIOD EMERGING CONVECTION/RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
THE WPC FORECAST WAS MAINLY DERIVED FROM A MULTI-MODEL BLEND OF
THE 18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF/CMC/UKMET FOR MAXIMUM SYSTEM
DETAIL CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. OPTED TO INCREASINGLY TRANSIITON TOWARD THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AMID GROWING UNCERTAINTIES, BUT
WITH PURPOSE TO BEST MAINTAIN TRENDS INTO EVOLUTION OF AN
AMPLIFIED WEST-CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND EAST-CENTRAL NATION
UPPER RIDGE PATTERN.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE POTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COASTAL STORM WILL SHIFT
INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND, SLOWLY ENDING
COOLED/WINDY CONDITIONS AND LINGERING WRAPBACK SNOWS WITH RENEWED
MARITIME AND CANADIAN MARITIME FOCUS.
MEANWHILE, UNSETTLED AND WINTRY CONDITIONS SPREAD OVER THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY EASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LEADING
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED/WAVY SURFACE
FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE SNOWY/WET ROCKY STATES AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST WHERE A SLOW MOVING AXIS OF PRECIPITATION
COULD FOSTER SOME LOCAL HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS. SPC ALSO
INDICATED A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEKEND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH SYSTEM APPROACH/INSTABILITY. COMPLICATED AND UNCERTAIN
FRONTO/CYCLO GENESIS TRANSITIONS SHOULD ACT TO FOCUS A LEAD
ENHANCED MOISTURE CONDUIT FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. TO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS THEN MIDWEST. BEHIND THE SYSTEM, HIGH WINDS
AND CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AS HUMIDITY DROPS AND WINDS INCREASE.
UPSTREAM, A RENEWAL OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A NEW PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DIGS DOWN AND THEN INTO AN UNSETTLED
SOUTHWEST. THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S., PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY AS
GULF INFLOW MAY BE SIGNIFCIANTLY RE-ENERGIZED WITH EVENTUAL SYSTEM
EJECTION TO MONITOR. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN
THIS TIME FRAME TO MONITOR.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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