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FXCA20 KWBC 031239
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
839 AM EDT WED APR 03 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI APR 03/12UTC:
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...AND AN INCREASING MOISTURE TREND WILL BEGIN BY THURSDAY
EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
WILL ALSO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DAY WITH THE LOWEST MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY...AND THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SOME RAINFALL IS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THIS WEEK.
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...REACHING THE EAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTH AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY WITH AXIS
OVER THE USVI AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST...IT WILL ALLOW A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN
STARTING THIS EVENING. THERE IS ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ALSO WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE USVI. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO
MOVE EAST AND THE AXIS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE USVI BY THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THURSDAY MORNING. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS GET CLOSER TO PR/USVI LATER ON AS A WEAK FRONT...BUT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INSISTS IN KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF
PR/USVI...ALONG 20N OR SO.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL FORECAST SUGGESTS NEAR 1 TO 1.50 INCHES
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PR...MOSTLY DUE TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
FORECAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. NORTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PR ARE
FORECAST NEAR 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES. THE SOUTH COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES OF PR...AS WELL AS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA ARE FORECAST
NEAR 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. THE USVI ARE ALSO FORECAST BETWEEN 0.10
TO 0.25 INCHES OVER THE 5-DAY PERIOD...BUT THE NORTHERN ISLANDS
ARE IN THE UPPER END OF THAT RANGE.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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