368
FXCA20 KWBC 031813
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 PM EDT WED APR 03 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 03 APR 2024 AT 1830 UTC: IN MEXICO AND PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA...A CONVERGENT PULSE OF THE MJO IS
FORECAST OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. EMBEDDED IN THE PULSE IS A
TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHERE A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
FAVOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON
WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF MEXICO WITH THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE REGION. TO
THE EAST...A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND INTO CHIAPAS...AND
ALONG VERACRUZ. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
INTERACTIONS IN CHIAPAS...CENTRAL GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR...QUINTANA ROO..WEST CUBA...AND
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON THURSDAY...THE FRONT
IS FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WEST-CENTRAL CUBA...YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND WHERE IT REMAINS STATIONARY IN CHIAPAS...AND THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS REGION.
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...WEST
CUBA...AND FROM EXTREME EAST CHIAPAS TO EL SALVADOR/SOUTH
HONDURAS. ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO WEST CUBA...EXTENDING INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM FROM
SOUTHERN BELIZE...TO SOUTH-CENTRAL GUATEMALA...AND WEST HONDURAS.
MAXIMA OF 15MM ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN BELIZE...NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...AND CENTRAL CUBA. OF NOTE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EXTENDS INTO WEST SONORA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
15MM...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT SNOW/RAIN MIX.
IN THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE IN
THE TRADE WINDS IS ADVECTING FROM THE WEST INTO
VENEZUELA...AMAZONAS-BRASIL...COLOMBIA...NORTH PERU...AND ECUADOR
FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE WILL BE
ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...WEST
COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. FROM EAST COLOMBIA...INTO
ECUADOR...NORTH PERU AND WEST AMAZONAS-BRASIL...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. MAXIMA OF 15-30MM ARE EXPECTED FROM FRENCH GUIANA INTO
AMAPA AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. PORTIONS OF COSTA
RICA/PANAMA...AND FROM RORAIMA...TO WEST PARA...EXPECT GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...UPPER DIVERGENCE CONTINUES OVER
COLOMBIA...AND WEST AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
LEVELS HIGHER THAN 55MM ARE EXPECTED. THEY COULD SEE MAXIMA OF
30-60MM WITH RISK OF MCS FORMATION. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
GUYANA COULD FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION MAXIMA IN SOUTH VENEZUELA...SOUTHEAST
COLOMBIA...AND AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AS UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MOST
FAVORABLE ON THIS DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED
60MM...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES
CROSSING OVER THE EAST COLOMBIA...AND AMAZONAS-BRASIL ON FRIDAY
CAN FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM WITH RISK OF
MCS FORMATION. SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND WEST COLOMBIA...IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER OF OVER 50MM.
WEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. WHILE FROM
NICARAGUA...TO PANAMA...AND THE ANDEAN REGION OF COLOMBIA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ECUADOR...AND PARA CAN EXPECT SIMILAR
AMOUNTS.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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