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FXCA20 KWBC 041238
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
838 AM EDT THU APR 04 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI APR 04/12UTC:
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH
TODAY...AND MOISTURE WILL START TO INREASE BY THIS EVENING. ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL ALSO BE
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TODAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...DECREASING SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW LEVELS. TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE DAY WITH THE LOWEST MOISTURE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME RAINFALL IS EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS
WEEK...INCLUDING TODAY.
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MEANDER FOR
THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK...BUT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
WEEKEND...REACHING THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...BUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE EAST...THE
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTH AND OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL BE UNDER A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
ISLANDS BUT WILL MOVE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO
DOMINATE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS GET CLOSE TO PR/USVI BY MONDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH AND PASSING OVER THE ISLANDS...WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF PR/USVI BY TUESDAY.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL FORECAST SUGGESTS FROM 2 INCHES TO OVER
2.5 INCHES OVER NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL PR...MOSTLY DUE TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FORECAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...THEN POSSIBLE
PERSISTENT RAIN ON MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO A NE DIRECTION WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NORTHWESTERN PR IS FORECAST NEAR 0.50 TO
0.75 INCHES. WESTERN PR...THE SOUTH COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF
PR...AS WELL AS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE USVI ARE FORECAST NEAR
0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES...WITH SOUTHWESTERN PR BEING ON THE LOWEST END
OF THE RANGE...AND 0.25 TO 0.50 FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
ALAMO/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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