654
FXCA20 KWBC 041825
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT THU APR 04 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 04 APR 2024 AT 1830 UTC: ON THURSDAY...THE
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTH COLOMBIA. TO THE NORTH...A LONG WAVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CENTRAL
CUBA...INTO BELIZE...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME STATIONARY. THE MJO IS CURRENTLY IN A CONVERGENT PHASE
OVER THE REGION AND WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION
IN THESE AREAS. MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED IN BELIZE AND
NORTHWEST HONDURAS. SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND WEST CUBA. THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES
WILL FAVOR GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...IN CENTRAL CUBA...AND REMAINS
STATIONARY IN BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND CHIAPAS. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR
LINE DEVELOPS OVER TURKS AND CAICOS...EAST CUBA...AND WEST
JAMAICA. THE FRONT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND WEST HONDURAS...AS WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED
FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND INCREASED MOISTURE CONTENT CONVERGES OVER
THE REGION FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 10MM...WHILE
CUBA...AND JAMAICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM LOW LEVEL TROUGHS REACHING THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THEY CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ELSEWHERE IN
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO/VI...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES...EXPECT
MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. ON SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
JUST EAST OF TURKS AND CAICOS...EXTREME EAST CUBA...AND BECOMES
STATIONARY EAST OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND CENTRAL
GUATEMALA. THE PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE HAS PROGRESSED EAST OVER
HISPANIOLA...AND EXTENDS JUST NORTHEAST OF NICARAGUA. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY. THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND THUS PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE. HISPANIOLA...EAST NICARAGUA...AND
SOUTHWEST GUATEMALA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. EAST
CUBA...BELIZE...JAMAICA...AND PUERTO RICO CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW
15MM. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IS EXPECTED IN
NORTHWEST COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA. SOUTHERN COSTA RICA
AND WEST PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN BELOW 15MM. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS IS DUE TO
A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH/SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE IN SOUTH
AMERICA. UNDER THIS PATTERN...EXPECT ENHANCED VENTILATION IN MOST
OF COLOMBIA/SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND INTO THE AMAZON BASIN...AIDED
BY ITCZ/NET CONVERGENCE. NEVERTHELESS...CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECISE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CONTINUES LOW...AS MODELS
KEEP STRUGGLING WITH THE INITIALIZATION OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
THE IMPACT OF DEEP CONVECTION ON THE MODULATION OF LATENT HEAT
RELATED PROCESSES. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
IN MOST OF COLOMBIA AS WELL AS IN RORAIMA/NORTHERN AMAZONAS IN
BRASIL...WHERE EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
IN THE GUIANAS...THE ARRIVAL OF A MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
FRIDAY...EXPECT A PEAK IN VENTILATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VENEZUELA
AND EASTERN COLOMBIA/NORTH BRASIL. THIS WILL FAVOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
50-100MM WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. IN THE
GUIANAS...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO PRODUCE 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA AND IN NORTHERN
GUYANA/EAST VENEZUELA. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION TO CLUSTER ALONG WESTERN AMAZONAS AND SOUTHEAST
COLOMBIA TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. IN THE GUIANAS...AN INCREASE
IN TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE ENTIRE REGION. IN AREAS TO THE
WEST...ACROSS ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA...EXPECT MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER
THE 15-25MM/DAY RANGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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