642
FXCA20 KWBC 051237
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
837 AM EDT FRI APR 05 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI APR 05/12UTC:
NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE IN AN
UPWARD TREND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE EXPECTED FROM THIS
WEEKEND ONWARD. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY AND REMAIN ON THE UPPER END OF
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FROM THIS WEEKEND ONWARD. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND RELATIVELY WEAK
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CAUSE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST PR TODAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR THE USVI. THE WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ON SUNDAY...CAUSING SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCALLY
INDUCED SHOWERS OVER PR...BUT THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS
NORTH CENTRAL PR WOULD BE THE LOCATION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF
RAIN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED WOULD FAVOR NORTH TO
EAST PR AS WELL AS THE USVI. ON TUESDAY...MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WOULD BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...THEREFORE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH ST. CROIX MAY STILL OBSERVE PERSISTENT SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THIS WEEKEND...REACHING THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE EAST...THE LOCAL WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT TO A SE DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
BE UNDER A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS HOWEVER...THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH
THAT COULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATE THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A RIDGE PERSISTING THEREAFTER. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY SUNDAY AND GET CLOSE TO PR/USVI BY MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH AND PASSING OVER THE ISLANDS...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SOUTH OF PR/USVI BY TUESDAY.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL FORECAST SUGGESTS NEAR 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER
NORTHERN PR. EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PR IS FORECAST NEAR 0.50 TO 0.75
INCHES. SOUTHWESTERN PR...ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES
OF PR INTO SOUTHEASTERN PR IS FORECAST NEAR 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE USVI ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75
INCHES OF RAIN.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page