409
FXCA20 KWBC 051742
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
141 PM EDT FRI APR 05 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 05 APR 2024 AT 1730 UTC: A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND EXTENDS INTO MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. IN THE
MID LEVELS...A SIMILAR RIDGE PATTERN IS LOCATED OVER THE
REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT TRADE WIND INVERSION CAPS FROM
THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA...MEXICO...AND
EAST INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES...INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY...AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL
SYSTEMS IS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INTO CENTRAL
CUBA...AND ENTERS BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...AND CHIAPAS. A
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE DEVELOPED OVER TURKS AND CAICOS...EAST
CUBA...AND JAMAICA. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND PORTIONS OF EL
SALVADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE
BAHAMAS..CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW
10MM. IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
DUE AN INCOMING TROUGH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM FROM EAST
NICARAGUA TO PANAMA. ON SATURDAY...THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT ADVANCES INTO TURKS AND CAICOS...AND INTO EASTERN
CUBA...WHILE THE STATIONARY PORTION BEGINS JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND REMAINS FROM BELIZE TO EASTERN CHIAPAS. THE
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA...AND SOUTHEAST
OF JAMAICA. INCREASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST
WITH THE SHEAR LINE...AND HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM...WITH HIGHER LOCALIZED TOTALS POSSIBLE. DUE TO FAVORABLE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE EASTERN PORTION OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
FOR SOUTHWEST GUATEMALA AND CHIAPAS. EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
BELIZE CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. FROM SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA TO
COSTA RICA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGION...EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS. ON SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY
PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINS TO LOSE
DEFINITION...WHILE IT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER EAST CUBA. THE
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
HISPANIOLA...WHILE INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 50MM.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. HAITI AND JAMAICA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM...IN ASSOCIATION TO THE SHEAR LINE. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN BELIZE...WHILE
EAST CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. ELSEWHERE IN COSTA
RICA...MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED...WHILE OAXACA/SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ...SOUTH GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR... AND PUERTO RICO CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN
COLOMBIA...ECUADOR ...NORTH PERU...AND NORTHERN BRASIL. LOW LEVEL
TROUGHS THAT ARE ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ/NET WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN BRASIL AND SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 50-100MM WITH A RISK OF MCS FORMATION. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND WESTERN
PARA...IN ADDITION TO NORTH PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
WESTERN COLOMBIA COULD EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROUGH OVER EXTREME WEST COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...FAVORING MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE REGION. ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES TO THE WEST
INTO COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR...WHERE THE MAXIMA OF 35-70MM WITH RISK
OF MCS FORMATION IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN COLOMBIA AND INTO
AMAZONAS-BRASIL. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WEST COLOMBIA
CONTINUES AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE ITCZ IN NORTHERN BRASIL. OTHER PORTIONS OF
COLOMBIA...INTO ECUADOR AND PERU EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON SUNDAY...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA
AND ECUADOR...AND INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATED TO A
LOW LEVEL TROUGH...WILL ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMA OF
50-100MM WITH RISK OF MCS FORMATION ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST
ECUADOR. MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IS EXPECTED IN WEST COLOMBIA. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...INTO NORTH PERU.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
ADVECTION OF DRY AIR FROM THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FROM THE
GUIANAS INTO NORTHERN BRASIL AND VENEZUELA.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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