777
FXUS01 KWBC 071904
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 PM EDT SUN APR 07 2024
VALID 00Z MON APR 08 2024 - 00Z WED APR 10 2024
...MULTI-DAY FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY-TUESDAY...
...BEST CHANCES FOR CLEAR VIEWING OF MONDAY'S TOTAL ECLIPSE ACROSS
THE PATH OF TOTALITY EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, CLEARER
SKIES POSSIBLE BUT MORE UNCERTAIN FROM ARKANSAS NORTHEAST TO
INDIANA...
...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL TAPER
OFF INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY...
WHILE TOMORROW'S TOTAL ECLIPSE WILL BE OCCUPYING A LOT OF
ATTENTION, AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE PRESENT, INCLUDING
IN THE PATH OF TOTALITY. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW/ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AS WELL AS SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
UPPER-MIDWEST AND A WINTRY MIX IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE
SOUTH, MOIST GULF RETURN FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE DAY. THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SEVERAL MORE
ROBUST, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OVER
NORTHWEST TEXAS WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR INSTANCES OF
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL EXISTS. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK IS IN PLACE
ACROSS PORTIONS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
EAST INTO THE ARKLATEX WHERE SOME LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, AS THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX, HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS AND A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IN PLACE. TO THE
NORTH, SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LOW. A TRANSITION INTO A WINTRY MIX/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE WEST WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AFTER A VERY WINDY AND SNOWY SUNDAY. A FEW
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY MORNING,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE INTO THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY ARCING SOUTH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY/APPALACHIANS AND THEN WEST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,
THOUGH THESE SHOULD TAPER OFF INTO THE DAY AS WELL.
AS FAR AS ECLIPSE VIEWING IN THE PATH OF TOTALITY, SKY COVER
FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE
CLEARER SKIES ARE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CLEARER SKIES MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE FROM ARKANSAS NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA,
HOWEVER THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS. UNFORTUNATELY, CONDITIONS LOOK CLOUDIER OVER TEXAS
AND FROM OHIO NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
YORK. HOWEVER, THE TIMING, LOCATION, AND HEIGHT OF POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER DURING THE ECLIPSE EVEN IN THESE AREAS MAY CHANGE OR COULD
WORK FAVORABLY AND NOT IMPEDE VIEWING AS MUCH AS EXPECTED.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
THE UPPER-LOW AS WELL AS A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO REINVIGORATE THE
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM, REINFORCING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCING
SOUTHERLY MOIST GULF FLOW WILL HELP TO CONTINUE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AS WELL AS BETTER
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL
LEAD TO AREAS OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL. FORECAST
AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL IS OVER 3 INCHES FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, AND NORTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI LATE MONDAY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL ON TOP OF
INCREASINGLY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAS PROMPTED A MODERATE
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 3/4) FOR THE THREAT OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK
EXISTS FROM NORTH TEXAS EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHERE ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY, THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., JUST BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THE REGION, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FURTHER WESTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS. BOTH INDIVIDUAL AND CLUSTERS OF MORE
VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO MORE INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS, WITH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL MOST LIKELY FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA.
ELSEWHERE, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST OF
THE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, PROMPTING ANOTHER
CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3) FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER, WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FURTHER TO
THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER
GREAT LAKES, APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BRING INCREASING LOWER ELEVATION/COASTAL RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE CASCADES BY MONDAY EVENING, WITH SNOW CHANCES
SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE AND MILD TO
WARM OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST/PLAINS. THE GREATEST ANOMALIES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY, WHERE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
AND 70S ARE UPWARDS OF 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD AND INCREASING COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WEST THROUGH THE ARKLATEX AND INTO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
WARM UP BY 10-15 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
FOLLOWING ONE MORE CHILLY DAY ON MONDAY. AN EXPANDING AREA OF
WARM, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM
CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN.
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