153
FXUS01 KWBC 080827
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT MON APR 08 2024
VALID 12Z MON APR 08 2024 - 12Z WED APR 10 2024
...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS THE BEST LOCATION FOR CLEAR
VIEWING OF THE TOTAL SOLAR ECLIPSE THIS AFTERNOON...
...LINGERING WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF LATER TODAY WHILE LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...
...HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EMERGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
TUESDAY...
...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN TEXAS BY
TUESDAY...
AS THE LONG-ANTICIPATED TOTAL SOLAR ECLIPSE SCHEDULED TO TAKE
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON, THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. IS
ENTERING A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM ONE THAT CONSISTS OF A WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE NORTH TO HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT SNOW,
HIGH WINDS, AND SEVERE WEATHER TO VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, AND THEN MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY. LINGERING WET SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATER TODAY WHILE LOCALLY
MODERATE RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MONDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NEAR THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE,
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE
WESTERN GULF STATES. SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL LIKELY WAKE UP TO FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY FOLLOWED BY A RAPID
UNTIMELY INCREASE OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON PRIOR
TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SOLAR ECLIPSE. IN CONTRAST, NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND REMAINS TO BE THE REGION WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE
MINIMIZED ALONG THE PATH OF TOTALITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NOR'EASTER MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. IT APPEARS THAT
OTHER LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL HAVE A FAIR CHANCE OF CLOUD COVERS
AT VARIOUS LEVELS, ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MIDWEST COULD SEE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OR HIGH THIN CLOUDS DURING THE TIME OF
TOTALITY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE SOUTH FROM EASTERN TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE
TO A POTENT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE. A FEW INCHES
OF RAIN WILL LIKELY BE COMMON FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THIS SETUP. IN
ADDITION, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE HEAVY RAIN AREA FROM TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO HEAD
FARTHER EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE MID-SOUTH AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND TRACKS TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE, MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BY LATER TODAY AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY.
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS AS A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. AS FOR FIRE
WEATHER, IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA OF CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER
WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN TEXAS PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE AND
MILD TO WARM OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. TODAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST/PLAINS. THE GREATEST ANOMALIES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY, WHERE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
AND 70S ARE UPWARDS OF 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD AND INCREASING COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WEST THROUGH THE ARKLATEX AND INTO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
WARM UP BY 10-15 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
FOLLOWING ONE MORE CHILLY DAY ON MONDAY. AN EXPANDING AREA OF
WARM, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM
CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN.
KONG/PUTNAM
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