081
FXCA20 KWBC 081807
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
207 PM EDT MON APR 08 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 08 APR 2024 AT 1815 UTC: ON MONDAY...THE
FORECAST REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE DRIER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE CARIBBEAN. A CONVERGENT
PHASE OF THE MJO IS SUPPRESSING THE ABILITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE REGION...EVEN THOUGH AN ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN IS FAVORING A TRADE WIND INVERSION CAP OVER MOST OF THE
NORTH CARIBBEAN...GULF OF MEXICO REGION...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CENTRAL AMERICA ON MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDS INTO
PUERTO RICO/VI...CROSSING INTO HISPANIOLA...AND JUST NORTH OF
JAMAICA...PROVIDING AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON MONDAY. THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE PUERTO RICO CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. EAST CUBA...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND
NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. INCREASED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN CENTRAL AMERICA...WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
15-25MM...IN GUATEMALA...BELIZE...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. ON
TUESDAY...THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND FAVOR MAXIMA OF
15-20MM IN PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM ARE EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. WESTERN GUATEMALA..AND CHIAPAS CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA CAN EXPECT
SIMILAR AMOUNTS. ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO REACH VERACRUZ ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH IT INCREASE THE PRECIPITATION IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND GUATEMALA. THE REGION CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SEE INCREASED
PRECIPITABLE WATER ENTER THE REGION AND COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-40MM IN COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA...AND 15-20MM IN EASTERN
PANAMA. IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOSING DEFINITION
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. JAMAICA...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE...WESTERLY
FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER
CONVERGENT MJO PULSE DEVELOPING OVER THE AMERICAS...IS FAVORING A
DECREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DYNAMICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
CONVECTION...RESULTING IN DECREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATING
CELLS. FURTHERMORE...AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS IS ENTERING THE
REGION FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
CONSERVATIVE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH MID-WEEK. ON
MONDAY...AN ACTIVE ITCZ WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM ALONG SOUTHWEST AND WEST COLOMBIA...WHILE IN NORTHWEST
AND NORTH-CENTRAL COLOMBIA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE EXPECT MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND ISOLATED
OCCURRENCE.. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A DECREASE TO MAXIMA OF 10-25MM
IN SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL COLOMBIA...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND VERY ISOLATED MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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