082
FXUS01 KWBC 081903
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 PM EDT MON APR 08 2024
VALID 00Z TUE APR 09 2024 - 00Z THU APR 11 2024
...HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EMERGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY...
..CRITICAL FIRE DANGER SHIFTS INTO TEXAS BIG BEND BY TUESDAY
AT THE WRITING OF THIS DISCUSSION, THE 2024 GREAT AMERICAN ECLIPSE
WAS WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE CULPRIT FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES FROM TEXAS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS AN ANOMALOUS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTING
TO DIG INTO NORTHERN OLD MEXICO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, CLOUD COVER BUT WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
DANGEROUS EVOLVING INTO A VERY STRONG SOUTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW
BRINGING A CORNUCOPIA OF SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS STARTING THIS
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EVENTUALLY SLIDING
EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AFTER ECLIPSE PARTIES MAY COME WITH UNWANTED CRASHERS IN THE FORM
OF: FIREWORKS, POTENTIAL SPINNERS, WIND MACHINES, WATER SPRAYERS
AND ICE MAKERS, AS MUCH OF TEXAS HAS A BROAD SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5)
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF TEXAS, WITH AN ENHANCED RISK (3 OF
5) ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER. SIGNIFICANT HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT, BUT
OVERLAPPED ARE ISOLATED TORNADOES AND SEVERE WINDS. AS THE SEVERE
PARTY IS GOING, HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO THE PARTY INTO THE LATER
HOURS OF MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING; WITH THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER ISSUING A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
BIG BEND OF TEXAS, INCREASED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST WITH VERY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES (SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS) AND INCREASING WINDS.
TODAY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS AN ELEVATED (LEVEL 1
OF 3) RISK OF FIRE DANGER, BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW REALLY TAKES
SHAPE TOMORROW (TUESDAY) AND WINDS FURTHER INCREASE, A CRITICAL
FIRE (2 OF 3) IS FORECAST OVER THE BIG BEND TO LOWER PECOS RIVER.
TUESDAY WILL FAIR LITTLE BETTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOLING ALOFT AND WITH CONTINUED WARM,
MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF AND DRY AIR FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS; VERY UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS; THOUGH THE AXIS OF CONCERN WILL SHIFT
EVER SO SOUTHWARD, FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN/EDWARDS PLATEAU ACROSS
TO THE PINEY WOODS OF E TEXAS AND INTO LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES BECOME A BIT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES WITH SIMILAR
WIND AND HAIL RISKS. SPC HAS AN ENHANCED RISK (3 OF 5) ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS TO WEST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHICH ALSO ALIGNS WITH THE
HATCHED AREA INDICATING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TORNADOES. SIMILARLY, WITH AN OVERLAP OF ADDITIONAL ROUND AND
INCREASED OVERALL MOISTURE TO THE AREA, WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (3 OF 4) IS UP FOR DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF FAR E
TEXAS, NORTHERN HALF OF LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI INDICATING BROADER AREAL COVERAGE FOR POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING CONDITIONS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING IN EARNEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND STARTING TO LIFT INTO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY; SO ONCE AGAIN, A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST BUT START SHIFTING
EAST WITH THE CORE OF THE ENHANCED RISK FROM SPC OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OF LA/MS WITH A SLIGHT RISK COVERING MUCH OF N
MS AND INTO AL AND FAR WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. A SIMILAR DOWNSTREAM
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM WPC EXTENDS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND EASTERN GEORGIA, AS
MULTIPLE DAYS/ROUNDS OF RAINFALL LIKELY HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND
MAKING THEM MORE SUSCEPTIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS LOCATED FROM E MS, ACROSS CENTRAL AL TO THE
CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER AND WESTERN GEORGIA LIKELY FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WITH RATES OF 2-3"/HR AND POTENTIAL
TRAINING/REPEATING TO INDUCE HIGHER RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
ELSEWHERE, CLOUD COVER REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE RAPIDLY FILLING CYCLONE. THE WARM
FRONTAL BAND OF CLOUDS AND WEAK SHOWERS ARE/HAVE RUINED ECLIPSE
VIEWING IN MUCH OF NEW YORK. WEAK SHOWERS WILL SLIDE DOWNSTREAM
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY, WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED HEATING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE ONLY AREA OF
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES) AS PLACES REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SEE
A CLIPPING FRONTAL ZONE WITH SOME MOISTURE AND HIGH ELEVATION
LIGHT SNOWS INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND EVENTUALLY ROCKIES
TUESDAY, DRYING OUT FOR WEDNESDAY.
GALLINA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page