471
FXCA20 KWBC 091240
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
839 AM EDT TUE APR 09 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI APR 09/12UTC:
A COLD FRONT IS NOT SOUTH OF PR/USVI...AND IT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BOTTOMING OUT ON THURSDAY BUT
INCREASING AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THAT SAID...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL
EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS MOST OF PR/USVI. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING OVER A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN PR...WHILE NEAR 1.5 INCHES COULD BE
OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PR. THE USVI ARE FORECAST
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN TODAY. AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON
WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN DRIER ON THURSDAY...THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE FORECAST WILL ALSO DECREASE. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES ON
FRIDAY...THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR COULD ONCE AGAIN OBSERVE
DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH AROUND 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...THERE IS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN...NOW SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND HELP BRING DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
STABLE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS WEEK. THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT COULD DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY ONWARD...BUT THE AXIS WILL BE OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...CAUSING PR/USVI TO BE IN THE SUBSIDENT SIDE
OF THE TROUGH.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL FORECAST SUGGESTS NEAR 2.5 TO 3 INCHES
OVER NORTHEASTER PR. BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN PR. VIEQUES AND CULEBRA COULD
OBSERVE BETWEEN 0.5 AND AN INCH OF RAIN...AND THE USVI ARE
FORECAST BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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