031
FXCA20 KWBC 091645
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1244 PM EDT TUE APR 09 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 09 APR 2024 AT 1830 UTC: ON TUESDAY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FAVORING
FRONTOGENESIS IN TEXAS AND REACHING COAHUILA AND CHIHUAHUA IN
MEXICO. ON TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG A DRY LINE IN
COAHUILA AND NUEVO LEON...WITH MAXIMA OF 15MM EXPECTED. IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO...AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN CHIAPAS AND
GUATEMALA IN THE TRADES IS INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN AND
FAVORING OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE REGION. MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SIMILAR AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED IN COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA WITH THE INCREASE OF
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS DUE TO PRESSURE DIFFERENCES OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...A DEBILITATING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLANTIC...INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES...WHERE IT REMAINS
STATIONARY. THE AREA CAN EXPECT GENERAL MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED FROM
ALABAMA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND ENTERING THE
MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ...AND BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN
NORTHERN VERACRUZ...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES...AND JAMAICA CAN EXPECT INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE TRADE
WINDS TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO CHIAPAS/OAXACA AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE DEVELOPS TO THE EAST...BY WEST
CUBA...INTO QUINTANA ROO...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.
ADDITIONALLY...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND INTO NORTHERN HONDURAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO LEVELS OVER 50MM IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO
GUATEMALA. TOTALS OF UNDER 15MM ARE EXPECTED IN TABASCO AND
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS AND BELIZE. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES. THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SQUALLY
WEATHER.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE DRY FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION...WITH THE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IN FROM THE
EAST. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE WESTERN COLOMBIA AND WEST
ECUADOR...AMAPA...PORTIONS OF PARA...AND FRENCH GUIANA. THE
NORTHERN PART OF BRASIL WILL SEE MOISTURE ALONG THE ITCZ...WHILE
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS MOST FAVORABLE IN THIS REGION FOR
DIVERGENCE. NORTHERN PARA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE
AMAPA AND FRENCH GUIANA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN COLOMBIA
AND ECUADOR...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO
FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN WEST COLOMBIA...AND 15-25MM FROM THE
EJE CAFETERO IN COLOMBIA AND SOUTH INTO WEST ECUADOR. ON
WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS OVER 60MM IS
EXPECTED TO REACH AMAPA AND PARA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IS EXPECTED IN THE GUIANAS AND IN
AMAZONAS-BRASIL. IN THE WEST...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IS
EXPECTED FROM EAST PANAMA...INTO THE EJE CAFETERO...AND SOUTH INTO
ECUADOR. ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE IS ADVECTED ALONG THE ITCZ/NET IN
NORTHERN BRASIL AND REACHES NORTHWEST PERU. AMAPA AND PARA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OTHER REGIONS OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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