970
FXUS01 KWBC 091859
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EDT TUE APR 09 2024
VALID 00Z WED APR 10 2024 - 00Z FRI APR 12 2024
...HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES, TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY, REACHING INTO THE MIDWEST,
OHIO VALLEY AND THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY...
...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER REMAINS OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS CURRENTLY UNFOLDING THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE REGION, WITH SEVERAL
MODES OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER POSSIBLE. AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT, NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES, AND A SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THROUGH TONIGHT, THE
BULK OF THE IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE MANY LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN DEALING WITH SOAKING RAIN AND INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO. WITH MORE HEAVY RAIN
ON THE WAY, NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS TO PARTS OF WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.
A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN
EFFECT, AS WELL AS FLOOD WATCHES EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO ALABAMA.
ADDITIONALLY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW
TORNADOES, LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
THE DISRUPTIVE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES, TENNESSEE
VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DUMP AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER A RELATIVELY
SHORT TIME PERIOD FROM NORTHEAST LOUISIANA TO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE MODERATE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO BE EXTENDED INTO THESE REGIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS
ON WEDNESDAY FROM EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI,
WHERE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES (A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG), AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS
AND NEVER DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BY THE
LATTER PART OF WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE ON A NORTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, AND
MID-ATLANTIC, BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NORTHERN
FLORIDA, AS WELL AS THE OHIO VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO LEAD TO
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. LASTLY, STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AND
COASTAL HAZARDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY.
MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE
NATION AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SWING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO
TONIGHT, WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
SNELL
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