164
FXUS01 KWBC 101946
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 PM EDT WED APR 10 2024
VALID 00Z THU APR 11 2024 - 00Z SAT APR 13 2024
...HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST...
...POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TO FOSTER HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY; SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD THREATS FORECAST IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
...HIGH WINDS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY; WARMING UP IN THE WEST...
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK-WEEK FEATURES AN IMPRESSIVE EARLY-MID
APRIL STORM SYSTEM, CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH,
THAT WILL HEAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND HEAD FOR BOTH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS COME
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST
DANGEROUS WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER AND WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BOTH ISSUED MODERATE RISKS
FOR SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RESPECTIVELY, IMPLYING
THAT NOT ONLY IS FLASH FLOODING ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST, BUT SO ARE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND LARGE HAIL.
MEANWHILE, PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON FROM THE ARKLATEX AND
OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT.
BY THURSDAY MORNING THIS STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DIRECT
ITS SHIELD OF RAIN NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC, THEN FINALLY INTO THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE ALSO STILL EXPECTED IN PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY IS MOST AT-RISK, AS EVIDENT WITH AN EXPANSIVE SLIGHT RISK
AREA AND A SMALLER ENHANCED RISK AREA THAT IS FOCUSED IN EASTERN
OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE PRIMARY MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER OF GREATEST CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH, THE STORM'S COLD FRONT WILL ACT
AS A TRIGGER FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SOUTH TO
NORTHERN FLORIDA. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK THAT STRETCHES FROM
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA ON SOUTH TO THE TAMPA, FL METRO AREA.
THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND RESULTING
FLASH FLOODING FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. WPC HAS A LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN PLACE
FOR PORTIONS OF THESE REGIONS, WITH METRO AREAS SUCH AS
PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON D.C., BALTIMORE, AND PHILADELPHIA ALL
WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK ZONE. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S., ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW.
BY FRIDAY, WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT BACKS DOWN, THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE. GUSTY WINDS, AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
IN THE WEST, A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THURSDAY ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONCLUDE AS THE NEXT PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM DELIVERS SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STORM SYSTEM DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS FROM THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND OREGON CASCADES ON EAST THROUGH MOST OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE-WISE, AN EXPANSIVE SWATH OF
UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MID-APRIL WILL GROW EAST FROM THE
WEST COAST AND THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND THURSDAY, TO EVENTUALLY
ENGULFING MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, COOL
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE EASTERN U.S. STORM
SYSTEM USHERS IN A BELOW NORMAL AIR-MASS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY. WHILE THESE AREAS WARM UP BY
FRIDAY, THE SAME REGIME OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOVES
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE
SOUTHEAST.
MULLINAX
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