463
FXUS01 KWBC 111920
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
320 PM EDT THU APR 11 2024
VALID 00Z FRI APR 12 2024 - 00Z SUN APR 14 2024
...POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY
RAIN, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH
FRIDAY...
...LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO ENTER CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO SURGE INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...
A LARGE, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE
BEHIND ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES UNTIL
EARLY THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES,
OHIO VALLEY, APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST. RAINFALL
COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH AT TIMES TO CREATE INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WHERE A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT.
ADDITIONALLY, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT A
SIMILAR REGION AND COULD CONTAIN A FEW TORNADOES, SCATTERED
DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL. THIS SEVERE THREAT ALSO
INCLUDES THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THIS EVENING, BUT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DRASTICALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. BY FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD ON
FRIDAY THROUGHOUT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
RAINFALL AND RECENT SNOWMELT. FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT
BETWEEN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL MAINE AS ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING. WIND
WILL BE ANOTHER ASPECT OF THIS STORM WORTH MONITORING AS THE LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE EAST
COAST CAN EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOOD HAZARDS.
MEANWHILE, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES AND APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ENTER CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE CHURNS JUST OFF THE COAST AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG
COASTAL REGIONS, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN OREGON, BUT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
MOSTLY BENEFICIAL.
AFTER A COOLER THURSDAY THROUGHOUT THE GREAT PLAINS UNDERNEATH
HIGH PRESSURE, MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY BY SATURDAY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE UPWARDS OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS EQUATES TO
WIDESPREAD HIGHS INTO THE 70S AND 80S FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
SNELL
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