554
FXUS01 KWBC 141816
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
216 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2024
VALID 00Z MON APR 15 2024 - 00Z WED APR 17 2024
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT...
...INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM TO BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
TUESDAY...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S;
CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY....
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT AND BRING WITH IT SOME SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. IN THE OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TURN SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. SEVERE
STORMS STORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT. SEVERE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
AN EMERGING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS
ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY INTO A SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE BY THAT EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SCATTERED TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO INITIATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS, ACCORDING TO SPC. THUS, THEY HAVE ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS,
DUE IN PART TO THE THREAT OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5)
IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS SHIFT
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPAND INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEEP GREAT PLAINS
STORM. SPC ISSUED ANOTHER ENHANCED RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI WHERE SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE CORN
BELT TO THE ARK-LA-TEX. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE
FORECAST OVER THE ENHANCED RISK AREA.
MEANWHILE, AS THE PLAINS STORM INTENSIFIES ON MONDAY, SO WILL
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. DRY AIR WILL WORK
IT'S WAY INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS. THESE
FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO, WESTERN KANSAS, WESTERN TEXAS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. DUST STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WHERE WINDS GUSTS WILL PEAK AROUND 55-65 MPH
ON MONDAY. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON MONDAY DUE TO THE FIRE THREAT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS STORM WILL PROMOTE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT TOMORROW IN PARTICULAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REPRESENT A 20-30
DEGREE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE A
BIT BUT REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE IN THOSE AREAS ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
MONDAY.
KEBEDE
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