959   
FXCA20 KWBC 151231  
PMDCA   
  
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
831 AM EDT MON APR 15 2024  
  
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI APR 15/12UTC:  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE  
EAST COAST OF THE USA SOUTH INTO HISPANIOLA. THIS IS INTERACTING  
WITH A WEAK IN THE EASTERLY TRADES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A  
MAXIMA IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...DEEP  
CONVECTION IS FLARING UP JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE VI AND NORTHEAST  
PUERTO RICO. THE SAN JUAN RADAR SUGGESTS THAT THE CORE OF THE  
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH A FEW CONVECTIVE  
CELLS ARE PESTERING THE WESTERN VI AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND  
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO.  
  
THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING THROUGH TUESDAY  
EVENING...WHILE MOVING LITTLE. ON WEDNESDAY IT IS FORECAST TO  
START MEANDERING EASTWARD WHILE BECOMING BROADER. AS THE SYSTEM  
PROGRESSES EASTWARD...HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER PRESENT ON  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS  
WILL YIELD TO A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION  
AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH  
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL  
LIMIT STABILITY...FAVORING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON  
CONVECTION ON DA DAILY BASOS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN  
THE PERSISTENCE OF VERY WEAK NORTHEASTERLY TRADES...DECREASING  
SPEED DURING DIURNAL HEATING HOURS...EXPECT THE LARGEST  
ACCUMULATIONS TO CLUSTER GENERALLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA FROM  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
  
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON MONDAY EXPECT THE HEAVIEST IN  
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CLUSTERING IN FAR NORTHWEST PUERTO  
RICO...WHERE EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 1-1.75 INCHES. SCATTERED  
CONVECTION IN EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PR AND IN THE WESTERN VI  
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 1-1.25 INCHES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT THE  
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN NORTH-CENTRAL PUERTO RICO WHERE EXPECT  
MAXIMA OF 1-1.25 INCHES. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AFTERNOON  
CONVECTION ALONG THE CORDILLERA TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 1-1.5  
INCHES...AND NEAR 2 INCHES LOCALLY. THIS DECREASES TO MAXIMA OF  
0.6-0.8 INCHES ON THURSDAY. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON  
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECISE DISTRIBUTION IS MUCH  
LOWER.  
  
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)  
  
  
 
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