395
FXCA20 KWBC 151239
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
839 AM EDT MON APR 15 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI APR 15/12UTC:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE
EAST COAST OF THE USA SOUTH INTO HISPANIOLA. THIS IS INTERACTING
WITH A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLY TRADES THAT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A MAXIMA IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY. AS A
RESULT...DEEP CONVECTION IS FLARING UP JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE VI
AND NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. THE SAN JUAN RADAR SUGGESTS THAT THE
CORE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE PESTERING THE WESTERN VI AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...WHILE MOVING LITTLE. ON WEDNESDAY IT IS FORECAST TO
START MEANDERING EASTWARD WHILE BECOMING BROADER. AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EASTWARD...HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER PRESENT ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL YIELD TO A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LIMIT STABILITY...FAVORING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON DA DAILY BASOS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN
THE PERSISTENCE OF VERY WEAK NORTHEASTERLY TRADES...DECREASING
SPEED DURING DIURNAL HEATING HOURS...EXPECT THE LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS TO CLUSTER GENERALLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON MONDAY EXPECT THE HEAVIEST IN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CLUSTERING IN FAR NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO...WHERE EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 1-1.75 INCHES. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PR AND IN THE WESTERN VI
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 1-1.25 INCHES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN NORTH-CENTRAL PUERTO RICO WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 1-1.25 INCHES. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ALONG THE CORDILLERA TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 1-1.5
INCHES...AND NEAR 2 INCHES LOCALLY. THIS DECREASES TO MAXIMA OF
0.6-0.8 INCHES ON THURSDAY. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECISE DISTRIBUTION IS MUCH
LOWER.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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