341
FXUS01 KWBC 160807
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2024
VALID 12Z TUE APR 16 2024 - 12Z THU APR 18 2024
...STORM SYSTEM TO BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...
...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST, CHILLIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES...
A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. A SUSTAINED ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST,
WITH MORE SCATTERED STORMS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A
RENEWED ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
ALONG WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE
WARM SECTOR FOR ROBUST SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5)
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IOWA, NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI, AND FAR
WESTERN ILLINOIS WHERE THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES, INCLUDING THE RISK FOR
A STRONG TORNADO. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHERE A MORE
ISOLATED THREAT FOR STORMS WILL EXIST, BUT WILL STILL POSE THE
THREAT FOR ALL HAZARDS. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER, ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY MORE SCATTERED BUT HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH STORMS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME SCATTERED STORMS MAY ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A RENEWED ROUND OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN PLACE FROM EASTERN INDIANA
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE STORMS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. AGAIN,
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE POTENT DOWNPOURS WITH STORMS
FURTHER SOUTH WILL POSE A THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
TO THE WEST, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MONTANA TUESDAY AND INTO
WYOMING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER-RELATED ADVISORIES
AND WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY BETWEEN
6-12", WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY IN WYOMING. SOME LIGHTER
SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRAILING END OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN CASCADES TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, THE
REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
TEND TO GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER.
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST, WITH 70S AND 80S FOR CALIFORNIA AND
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND 70S IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 90S. TO THE NORTH, 50S AND 60S
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN PLAINS, AND NEW
ENGLAND. AREAS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S BY
WEDNESDAY.
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