530
FXUS01 KWBC 211956
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT SUN APR 21 2024
VALID 00Z MON APR 22 2024 - 00Z WED APR 24 2024
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY...
...LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST;
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST, THEN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD OF THE FLORIDA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
ON MONDAY, THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF FLORIDA BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA UNTIL THE BOUNDARY MOVES OFFSHORE. THEREFORE,
THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD, REACHING OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
WILL HELP ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. IN CONTRAST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A SECOND FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT BASIN WILL
ALSO MOVE EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. ON MONDAY, AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS, A WEAK
PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST, AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY, THE RAIN MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BY
TUESDAY EVENING, THE RAIN WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
OVER HUDSON BAY WILL STREAM COLD AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR,
DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
ZIEGENFELDER
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