014
FXUS01 KWBC 230734
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
333 AM EDT TUE APR 23 2024
VALID 12Z TUE APR 23 2024 - 12Z THU APR 25 2024
...UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMP UP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES, WITH COOLER WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF
THE EAST...
THE MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPERIENCED THE LAST FEW DAYS
OVER THE LOWER 48 IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RETREAT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MIDWEEK AND SPARKS
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE GREAT PLAINS AND
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. FIRST, A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP RAPIDLY ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION
TO END AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE, A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM NORTHERN AND WEST TEXAS
TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A FEW STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS TODAY,
WHICH HAS PROMPTED THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO ISSUE A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER. A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OFF A SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE
ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL AID IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND A STRENGTHENING
DRYLINE PUSHES EASTWARD, WITH MOST OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOCATED
BETWEEN SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. ALONG WITH THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT, HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
ELSEWHERE, UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT
PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
THURSDAY AS INITIAL UPPER RIDGING AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY ERODE. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY BENEFICIAL OUTSIDE OF ANY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHWEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE 80S AND 90S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH 60S AND 70S FOR MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. BEGINNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST THIS MORNING
FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE 30S HERE MAY DAMAGE SENSITIVE PLANTS AND
VEGETATION IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE 60S AND 70S AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SPRING COLD FRONT ENTERING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO
AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST, EQUATING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 40S IN
NORTHERN LOCATIONS TO 60S ALONG THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE.
SNELL
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