412
FXUS01 KWBC 300731
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
330 AM EDT TUE APR 30 2024
VALID 12Z TUE APR 30 2024 - 12Z THU MAY 02 2024
...SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONCERNS FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT PLAINS THROUGH
MID-WEEK...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...
...COOL AND SNOWY IN THE NORTHWEST; WARMER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S....
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. RESPECTIVELY
TODAY. THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE VERY LARGE
HAIL, SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH RATES, WHICH IS WHY A
SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. SPC
ISSUED ANOTHER ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHILE WE HAVE A BROADER
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS UP INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND MUCH OF IOWA. A FEW TORNADOES,
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ANY SEVERE
STORMS THAT OCCUR.
MEANWHILE, A SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHWEST
WILL BE THE REASON WHY THEY EXPERIENCE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SUPPORT
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHERE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 6-12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPORT
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
PLAINS BENEATH THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE WARMING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRES ON WEDNESDAY.
KEBEDE
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