224
FXUS01 KWBC 010718
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
317 AM EDT WED MAY 01 2024
VALID 12Z WED MAY 01 2024 - 12Z FRI MAY 03 2024
...SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONCERNS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TODAY...
...COOL AND SNOWY IN THE NORTHWEST; ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S....
THE MONTH OF MAY KICKS OFF WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREATS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED AN ENHANCED
RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A
FEW TORNADOES, VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE BROADER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION. THE SURFACE WAVE WILL
LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING AND SUPPORT ENHANCED
RAIN RATES OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS, EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15%) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT. THUNDERSTORMS (SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE)
ORIGINATING FROM A DRYLINE IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL GROW
AS THEY PROPAGATE INTO A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TEXAS TODAY. GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL, A MODERATE RISK (AT LEAST 40%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS IN BETWEEN THE DALLAS AND
HOUSTON METROS THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD WRAP UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST COAST.
SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREATS SHIFT INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROLIFERATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT.
THE MCS ASSOCIATED WITH TONIGHT'S EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL
SHIFT INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION THURSDAY MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL SUPPORT BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH COLD
AIR IN PLACE, AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
BETWEEN 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHWESTERN MONTANA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE, FOR THE
MOST PART, ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MODERATES THINGS A BIT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
KEBEDE
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