075
FXUS01 KWBC 011929
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
328 PM EDT WED MAY 01 2024
VALID 00Z THU MAY 02 2024 - 00Z SAT MAY 04 2024
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT EXISTS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BEFORE EXPANDING INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...COOL AND SNOWY IN PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AND
POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY...
A VERY ACTIVE START TO MAY IS UNDERWAY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND AN ATTACHED WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL HELP DRAW AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE, CONVECTION FORMING OFF A
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, WITH SEVERAL STORMS POTENTIALLY CONTAINING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TRAINING OVER SIMILAR REGIONS. THE FLASH
FLOODING RISK IS HIGHEST ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT, WHERE A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FALLING OVER
SENSITIVE AND PREVIOUSLY SATURATED TERRAIN COULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS
FLASH FLOODS, WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENTS POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS, WITH A SEPARATE SLIGHT RISK IN EFFECT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS TO WESTERN IOWA. THESE REGIONS CAN ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND POSSIBLE
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THESE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTAIN DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES FROM WEST TEXAS TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE REGIONS FALL WITHIN AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTACHED COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY SWINGS EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON THURSDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
EXPAND EASTWARD. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN A LARGE AREA STRETCHING FROM THE MIDWEST TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH THE THREAT
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO
RECEIVE WARNINGS AND NEVER DRIVE ACROSS FLOODING ROADWAYS.
ONE ADDITIONAL HAZARD IN THE CENTRAL U.S. DUE TO THE POTENT
WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION WILL BE THE INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
TERRAIN COULD CAUSE WILDFIRES TO DEVELOP EASILY AND SPREAD
RAPIDLY. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AND STRETCH FROM EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO, FAR WEST OKLAHOMA, AND THE
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ELSEWHERE, A WEATHER PATTERN CONSISTING OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDING OVER
THE EAST AND TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL SUPPORT COOLER
WEATHER IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST WITH SUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH SPREADING FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION TO THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST, SNOW
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH THROUGHOUT THE
MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC COULD BREAK DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ON THURSDAY AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S. NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN COOLER, HOWEVER, THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
AND PROMOTES EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE CHILLY ATLANTIC.
SNELL
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