127
FXUS01 KWBC 020729
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
328 AM EDT THU MAY 02 2024
VALID 12Z THU MAY 02 2024 - 12Z SAT MAY 04 2024
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...
...COOL AND SNOWY IN PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AND
POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON TODAY...
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
EMERGING FROM THE BASE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. SOME STORMS COULD
TURN SEVERE, PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS,
WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5)
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED
PLENTY OF RAIN RECENTLY MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS, WHICH IS WHY THERE'S A TARGETED MODERATE RISK (AT LEAST
40%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WANES ON FRIDAY AS
THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED STORMS MOVE INTO
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
AN UPPER TROUGH STATIONED OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL GENERATE BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS COOL AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS, BUT PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
WHERE 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING. A NEW
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LOW ELEVATION
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL GENERATE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST TODAY AND
FRIDAY. SOME AREAS WITHIN THESE REGIONS MAY TIE OR BREAK HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS TODAY. THERE'S A MODERATE HEAT RISK OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AFFECTING INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING
AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A BIT
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AFTER A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
KEBEDE
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