538
FXUS01 KWBC 042024
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SAT MAY 04 2024
VALID 00Z SUN MAY 05 2024 - 00Z TUE MAY 07 2024
...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BRING HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TEXAS AND UPPER
MIDWEST INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATER ON
MONDAY...
..CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
A RATHER VIGOROUS AND DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE NEXT WAVE OF ACTIVE AND STORMY
WEATHER TO QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION HEAVY WET SNOW ARE ALREADY REACHING INTO
THE WEST COAST IN EARNEST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND QUICKLY INLAND ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND A GOOD PORTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT, REACHING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
QUITE A BIT OF WINDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA THROUGH TONIGHT, FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO WYOMING ON
SUNDAY BEFORE OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
TWO FEET OR MORE OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE ALONG
THE CASCADES IN OREGON, WITH A FOOT ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA, AND A
FOOT OR MORE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES, GREAT BASIN,
AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. IN
ADDITION, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATER ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT.
MEANWHILE, THE CENTER OF AN ELONGATED DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WIND-SWEPT RAIN
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY, THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE FOUND OVER TEXAS WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
A STATIONARY FRONT. ADDITIONAL ENERGY SETTING UP BY THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY, BEFORE
THE POTENT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING ELONGATED
LOW SHIFTS THE FOCUS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER ON MONDAY.
STILL FARTHER EAST, SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH TONIGHT NEAR AND AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG A COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD AND
GRADUALLY MERGE WITH THE LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT. THESE RAIN/SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FARTHER
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY, AND BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE, THE MID-SOUTH WILL SEE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
THE MID-ATLANTIC NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE COOL IN
CONTRAST WITH WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE, MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL SURGE INTO AND
PENETRATE THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEP AND
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH WINDY AND INCLEMENT WEATHER
CLOSER TO THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
KONG
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