231  
FXUS01 KWBC 060749  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
349 AM EDT MON MAY 06 2024  
 
VALID 12Z MON MAY 06 2024 - 12Z WED MAY 08 2024  
 
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AND A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE  
OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN  
HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON  
MONDAY...  
 
...HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...  
 
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS  
TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE LOWER GREAT  
LAKES AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY  
WEDNESDAY. THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM  
WILL HELP PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL  
ROCKIES AND THE UINTA MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY.  
 
MOREOVER, MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL STREAM NORTHWARD  
OVER THE PAINS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE  
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ONTO THE  
PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5)  
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS  
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND  
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THERE WILL BE THE ADDED THREAT  
OF EF2 TO EF5 TORNADOES, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65  
KNOTS OR GREATER, AND HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER THE AREA.  
 
FURTHERMORE, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN  
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA, WESTERN IOWA/MISSOURI, AND  
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES ONTO  
THE PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL  
2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN  
PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE  
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH  
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING  
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
IN ADDITION, THE MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL AID  
IN CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS  
OF EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THEREFORE, THE WPC  
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER  
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE  
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH  
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING  
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
ON TUESDAY, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, THE  
BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS  
OF OHIO, INDIANA, KENTUCKY, SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHEASTERN  
MISSOURI, EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS, AND A SMALL PORTION OF  
NORTHERN TENNESSEE. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK  
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY  
AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A  
FEW TORNADOES. THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF HAIL TWO  
INCHES OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.  
 
FURTHER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE  
OHIO VALLEY, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE CENTRAL GULF  
COAST ON MONDAY AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST ON  
TUESDAY.  
 
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER FRONT ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL  
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND INTO  
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN HALF OF  
THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE THE SOUTHERN  
HALF MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES,  
LINKING UP WITH THE FRONT AND EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE OHIO  
VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
ON MONDAY, RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE NORTHWEST.  
THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY OVER THE SOUTHERN CASCADES. SNOW WILL ALSO  
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION MONDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
ON TUESDAY, ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW  
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST. FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL AID IN PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS  
OF THE REGION.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
 
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