338
FXCA20 KWBC 061846
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 PM EDT MON MAY 06 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 06 MAY 2024 AT 1900 UTC:
ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION WE WILL HAVE A FEW AREAS WITH AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAINFALL TODAY INTO MIDWEEK. THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORKWEEK...WHILE
THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF MEXICO WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL DRY BY WEDNESDAY. THE AREAS
WITH PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL BE THE AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ/NET...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW EASTERLY WAVES THAT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
IN THE ATLANTIC...THERE IS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 20N FROM THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING WEST INTO EASTERN CUBA AND
TURKS AND CAICOS. THIS STATIONARY FRONT WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS...POSSIBLY DISSIPATING BY
THURSDAY. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DOMINATING
THE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
MEANS THAT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE TO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALSO BE INFLUENCED BY A SFC LOW MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF THE U.S. BUT OVERALL...THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE
GULF...THOUGH BECOMING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL PLAY A ROLE
ON THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN THAT ARE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED WITH A RIDGE ACROSS
MEXICO...WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OBSERVED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS STRONG RIDGE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...COMBINED WITH DRIER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE OVER MEXICO WILL
CAUSE MOST OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO OBSERVE
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS WITH RAIN OVER
10MM COULD BE OBSERVED...BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT. THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED IN
THE CARIBBEAN. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS AND THE GREATER ANTILLES...WHICH WILL PROMOTE PERSISTENT
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A MID ANS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH
ITS AXIS CURRENTLY OVER CUBA...BUT IS MOVING EAST AND ITS AXIS
WILL BE OVER HISPANIOLA BY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE
A WEAK WESTERLY JET IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOME VENTILATION AND MAY INCREASE INSTABILITY OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES. THIS SETUP COULD CAUSE RAINFALL MAXIMA ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES WHICH COULD SURPASS 25MM EACH DAY...WITH A
MARGINAL RISK OF SVR WX ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PR ON TUESDAY.
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL OBSERVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DO NOT APPEAR
TO BE TOO CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SOME AREAS
OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED AS EASTERLY WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE ITCZ/NET. MAX DAILY TOTALS OF AROUND 30-70MM CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BRAZIL AND NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA TODAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LOOKS
A TINY BIT DRIER...WITH MAX TOTALS UP TO 45MM BEING FORECAST.
HOWEVER...ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA COULD CAUSE PERSISTENT
SHOWER ACTIVITY...CAUSING MAX RAIN TOTALS TO 70MM.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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