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FXCA20 KWBC 081859
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EDT WED MAY 08 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 08 MAY 2024 AT 1900 UTC:
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO CENTER ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WHILE
EXTENDING AN AXIS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA/THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS IN MOST
OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF MOIST
PLUMES BREWING IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT WET CONDITIONS TO PANAMA...COSTA
RICA AND FAR SOUTHERN NICARAGUA.
TO THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...A MID-UPPER TROUGH PATTERN
CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. ON WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ITS AXIS
ACROSS THE MONA PASSACE INTO THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA IN
COLOMBIA...AND IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SLOWLY WHILE WEAKENING. BY
FRIDAY EVENING TEXPECT THE TROUGH AXIS TO EXTEND NEAR 55W OR EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...UPPER TROUGH
DYNAMICS WILL ENHANCE PRECIPIPITATION PRIMARILY IN AREAS LOCATED
TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN AXIS...ESPECIALLY GIVNE THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND
THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST PLUME WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 50MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
IN PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO
REACH 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. UPPER TROUGH DYNAMICS AND
ENHANCED INSTABILITY WILL POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION. IN HISPANIOLA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...ALTHOUGH VERY
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE
UPPER CONVERGENT TIER OF THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES HOLD...EXPECT A
GENERAL DECREASING TREND IN ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PLAY A ROLE
IN ENHANCING VENTILATION AND CONVECTION IN FAR NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. FURTHERMORE...IT IS FAVORING A LOWERING OF THE SURFACE
PRESSURES...WHICH IS YIELDING TO A NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE
ITCZ/NET FROM THE NORTHERN AMAZON INTO NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA. GIVEN AN ONGOING INCREASE IN EASTERLY
WAVE ACTIVITY...EXPECT SEASONALLY WET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GUIANAS...VENEZUELA AND ESPECIALLY
COLOMBIA. ON WEDNESDAY...THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM WITH A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. CONVECTION ALONC THE NET IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
VENEZUELA WILL ALSO FAVOR MAXIMA IN THE 30-60MM/DAY RANGE. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION TO GENERALLY CLUSTER
ALONG THE NET...WHERE EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA FO
40-80MM FROM FRENCH GUIANA WEST INTO CENTRAL COLOMBIA. ON
FRIDAY...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL STIMULATE CONVECTION IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND IN THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
50-100MM AND A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION.
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALSO A REGION OF INTEREST. MODELS
CONTINUE RESOLVING AN ACTIVATION OF THE PANAMANIAN LOW. AS IT
INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING EASTERLY WAVE AND WITH POTENTIAL
TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN...EXPECT AN ENHANCED COVERAGE OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ON WEDNESDAY AMOUNTS OF
20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN WEST PANAMA AND SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA...WHILE IN THE DARIEN AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON THURSDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN
PANAMA...WHILE IN COSTA RICA AND WEST NICARAGUA EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. BY FRIDAY...EXPECT POTENTIAL MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN MOST
OF COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA...WHILE IN CENTRAL PANAMA EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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