934
FXUS01 KWBC 090750
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 AM EDT THU MAY 09 2024
VALID 12Z THU MAY 09 2024 - 12Z SAT MAY 11 2024
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY/SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY,
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...
...HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
THURSDAY...
ON THURSDAY, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WESTWARD TO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD OFF MOST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY
EVENING, LINGERING OVER FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.
AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY, IT WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS,
LOUISIANA, CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, SOUTHERN ALABAMA, AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES. THERE WILL BE THE ADDED THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOREOVER, THERE WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL THREAT OF HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FURTHERMORE, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE HEAVY RAIN
TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS, NORTHERN LOUISIANA,
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, GEORGIA, FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE,
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA, AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THEREFORE, THE
WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE
VALLEY, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
ON THURSDAY. MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN
ADDITION, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO VALLEY, AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ON FRIDAY, THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF MOST OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST, WHILE PARTS OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA, EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA, AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
MOREOVER, SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA, EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA, AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THEREFORE, THE
WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID
RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM THURSDAY TO
SATURDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
MOREOVER, OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, A WEAK FRONT MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
BY SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
ALSO, RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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