141
FXCA20 KWBC 101726
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
126 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 10 MAY 2024 AT 1730 UTC: A POTENT MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO MEANDERS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA...LIMITING THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS FROM THE NORTH FURTHER SOUTH INTO MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ASSISTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...AND INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA. THESE SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROBUST OVER THE WEEKEND AND MEANDER OVER THE
FORECAST REGION...LIMITING THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST AND BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO CAN EXPECT LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...AND PROPAGATES EAST. NORTHEAST MEXICO AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL HAVE AN INCREASING
TREND FROM FRIDAY BEING THE DAY WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION...AND SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DAY WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE PASSING OF TROUGHS AND EASTERLY WAVES
WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE REGION... AND
SST IN THE PACIFIC COASTS FROM CHIAPAS...TO EL GOLFO DE FONSECA
WILL FAVOR THE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC
BASIN OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN FROM GUATEMALA INTO HONDURAS WILL FAVOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ALONG THE BORDERS OF EL SALVADOR/HONDURAS...AND
INTO THE GOLFO DE FONSECA REGION. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA TO
EXTEND INTO GUATEMALA AND INTO THE SAME AFOREMENTIONED
REGIONS...WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SUNDAY...FROM EASTERN
CHIAPAS...AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM...WHILE FROM EL SALVADOR TO NICARAGUA...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM.
IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF A
PREVIOUS FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE RANGE OF 40-50MM IN THE REGION...WITH
AMOUNTS HIGHER THAN 50MM IN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...AND THE
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. ON
FRIDAY...PUERTO RICO CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE EAST
HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM ARE EXPECTED IN HAITI...AND THE NORTHER LESSER ANTILLES.
AS THE EFFECTS FROM THE RIDGE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN HISPANIOLA...WHILE ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM ARE
EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES.
IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE
PROPAGATION OF EASTERLY WAVES AND TROUGHS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BE THE CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO PRECIPITATION IN THE
REGION. OVER CENTRAL SOUTH AMERICA...THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IN THE
UPPER LEVELS EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
REGION...AND THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
VENTILATION ALONG ITS PERIPHERY IN VENEZUELA...AND THE
GUIANAS...AND PORTION OF EXTREME NORTHERN BRASIL. WHILE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...THE ITCZ/NET IS LOCATED FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE GUIANAS AND VENEZUELA. THE TROUGHS AND EASTERLY
WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE ALONG THE ITCZ/NET OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE FROM EASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO
SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...AND EXTREME NORTHERN BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 35-70MM. NORTH COLOMBIA INTO THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION...AND
THE PACIFIC BASIN OF COSTA RICA/PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN EASTERLY WAVES IS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY OVER EASTERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA. TO THE
EAST...THE SOUTHERN GUIANAS AND RORAIMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM...WHILE TO THE WEST...WESTERN COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. EXTREME SOUTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH AND
INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. IN
COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE
PASSING EASTERLY WAVES AND TROUGHS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
BY SUNDAY...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN AROUND THE ITCZ/NET REGION FROM
SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...INTO THE GUIANAS...AND NORTHERN
BRASIL...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. COSTA RICA AND PANAMA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM DUE TO THE DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS AND DECREASE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED IN THE
REGION. IN FRENCH GUIANA...AND PORTIONS OF AMAPA...THE COASTAL
REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF
20-45MM WITH THE ONGOING INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM PROPAGATING
EASTERLY WAVES AND TROUGHS...AS WELL AS ITCZ INTERACTIONS AND
EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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