915
FXUS01 KWBC 111837
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2024
VALID 00Z SUN MAY 12 2024 - 00Z TUE MAY 14 2024
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...
...WET AND COOL CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEST
AND NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL, ACTIVE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CLOSED UPPER-LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO TO WEST TEXAS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, STRONG
WIND GUSTS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
ALSO FORECAST TO STRETCH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. BY SUNDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SHIFT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EASTWARD THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TEXAS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER, THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
THROUGHOUT PARTS OF EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. SATURATED
GROUND CONDITIONS AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO NUMEROUS
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH WACO, TEXAS AND POINTS EASTWARD
TO NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER UNDER A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARD THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, PRODUCING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. MEANWHILE, THE NORTHERN END OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS FORECAST TO PUSH AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SWINGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, WITH A FEW INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY ALSO DAMPEN WEEKEND PLANS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, AS WELL THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE ALSO KEEPING TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER SIDE. FURTHER WEST, A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
SPAWN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
A TASTE OF SUMMER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SOME FOLKS AS WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STRETCH FROM THE WEST TO THE MIDWEST ON
MOTHER'S DAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE WIDESPREAD (90S IN
THE SOUTHWEST), WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALSO IMPACTING
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND FLORIDA INTO MONDAY.
SNELL
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