692
FXUS01 KWBC 120730
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 AM EDT SUN MAY 12 2024
VALID 12Z SUN MAY 12 2024 - 12Z TUE MAY 14 2024
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEST
AND NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN U.S. OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS
TODAY, AND LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT, AND WARM, MOIST GULF AIR WILL
SURGE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL
2/5) FOR THIS AREA. POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND A COUPLE TORNADOES. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE
STORM HAZARDS, HEAVY RAIN FALLING ON TOP OF SATURATED SOILS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IN EFFECT FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) AREA
FOR PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE AREAS IN EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARDS THIS WEEK,
AND THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOODING WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
TO THE NORTH, A FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND MONDAY, AND PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO EXPAND ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS, A SEPARATE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
AND LOW ELEVATION SHOWERS AND STORMS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ARE
EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHWEST.
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WITH WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S, AND POTENTIALLY THE LOWER 90S FOR SOME. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY FOR THE REST OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
IN THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES.
DOLAN
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