753
FXUS01 KWBC 122001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2024
VALID 00Z MON MAY 13 2024 - 00Z WED MAY 15 2024
...RISK FOR NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERN TEXAS/CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE SUNDAY TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST MONDAY...
...SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY, SPREADING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY...
..GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEST
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BRING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING, AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER, FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE THREAT SUNDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FOCUSED ON PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 3/4) REMAINS IN PLACE. HERE, ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRONG
CAPE WILL LEAD TO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
STORMS FOCUSING ALONG A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT LEADING TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN ON TOP OF WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD MONDAY, WITH THE THREAT
OF VERY TO EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL EXTENDING ALONG THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) STRETCHES FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED MODERATE RISK CENTERED ON
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE
THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF REPEATED STORMS PRODUCING
INTENSE DOWNPOURS EXIST. THE PROSPECT OF SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
COULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE WARM FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
GEORGIA. ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS ACROSS
THIS REGION SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE A
FEW ADDITIONAL SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY TO PORTIONS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST BY MONDAY. THE MOST
CONCENTRATED FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTERLY
MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. WHILE RAIN RATES WONT BE QUITE AS INTENSE AS
IN THE SOUTH DUE TO A LACK OF GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY,
ENOUGH RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SOME THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PLACE.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING AND INTO
THE APPALACHIANS/INTERIOR NORTHEAST INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. TO THE
WEST, THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN CANADA
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS LATE MONDAY
AND INTO THE DAY TUESDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW AVERAGE
FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ACTIVE PATTERN. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY GENERALLY RANGE IN THE
60S AND 70S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHWARD, WITH MORE 80S POSSIBLE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND FLORIDA, WHERE HIGHS WILL BE HOT AND INTO THE 90S
AND LOW 100S. SOME RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IN THE WEST, HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS MONDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S, BEFORE THE NOTED
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES IN AND DROPS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT GREAT BASIN, WITH 80S
AND EVEN SOME 90S EXPECTED INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE PACIFIC
COAST. WHILE NOT AS ANOMALOUS, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS INTO THE
70S, AS WELL AS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO
LOW 100S.
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