360
FXUS01 KWBC 150759
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2024
VALID 12Z WED MAY 15 2024 - 12Z FRI MAY 17 2024
...UNSETTLED WEATHER SPREADS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST TODAY...
...HAZARDOUS HEAT POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH TEXAS
THIS WEEK ...
...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN U.S. AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE USHERED INTO THE PLAINS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCE AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SPC HAS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVER WEATHER FOR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH SLIGHT
RISKS FOR THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR VERY WARM WEATHER, WITH HEAT
INDICES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED MAJOR
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ROUND OF HOT WEATHER
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK ACCORDING TO EXPERIMENTAL NWS HEATRISK
GUIDANCE. HAZARDOUS HEAT ALSO WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO, USHERING IN A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
WITH THE RETURN OF THE HEAT THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
WILL BE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE GULF
COAST, SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH
COULD BE A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT. SPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WPC HAS A MODERATE
(LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR EASTERN TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA. AREAL AVERAGES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS FORECAST FOR THE
WESTERN GULF STATES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS THERE HAS BEEN A NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH HAS MADE MUCH OF THIS PART OF THE REGION
SENSITIVE TO ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN.
CAMPBELL/ASHERMAN
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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