043
FXUS01 KWBC 160750
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2024
VALID 12Z THU MAY 16 2024 - 12Z SAT MAY 18 2024
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE GULF STATES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL U.S
TODAY...
...HAZARDOUS HEAT POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH TEXAS
THIS WEEK ...
RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF STATES AS A
HOT, MOIST AIRMASS SETTLES IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS AIRMASS WILL
ALSO ATTRIBUTE TO STINT OF UNUSUALLY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA AND TEXAS WITH HEAT INDICES RISING ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
OWING TO THE COMBINATION OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES AND FORECAST
RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS, MAJOR
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ROUND OF HOT WEATHER
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK ACCORDING TO EXPERIMENTAL NWS HEATRISK
GUIDANCE. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT WILL POOL OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE RAINFALL EFFICIENCY AND INTENSITY AS
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ADVANCES EASTWARD. AREAL
AVERAGES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL OVER AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SENSITIVE FROM RECENT
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. WPC HAS HIGH RISK IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA TODAY, WHICH IS A LEVEL 4
OUT OF 4 FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE NUMEROUS
AREAS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING. IN
ADDITIONAL TO THE RAINFALL THREAT, THERE WILL ALSO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS AN ENHANCED RISK IN PLACE FOR TODAY
WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT RISK FOR FRIDAY FOR THE CENTRAL GULF STATES.
WPC HAD ANOTHER MODERATE RISK DEPICTED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA, AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY.
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, COASTAL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN DELMARVA WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES
OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH 2-3" OF RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OFFSHORE. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IN
THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN STEADY STRATIFORM RAINFALL, WITH THE
BULK OF ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS BEING CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. ACROSS THE WEST, MOST LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE DRY AND CALM WEATHER.
CAMPBELL
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HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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