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FXHW40 KWBC 161231
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EDT THU MAY 16 2024
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JUNE 2024
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI,
AND THE BIG ISLAND) HAVE PREDOMINANTLY BEEN CLOSE TO THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. FROM TIME TO TIME, BELOW-AVERAGE SSTS HAVE
APPEARED NEAR THE BIG ISLAND, BUT PERIODS OF NEAR-AVERAGE SSTS HAVE BEEN OF
LONGER DURATION.
FROM JANUARY THROUGH APRIL 2024, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
LIHUE AIRPORT 17.55 INCHES (125 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HONOLULU AIRPORT 4.58 INCHES (66 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
KAHULUI AIRPORT 8.36 INCHES (100 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HILO AIRPORT 38.19 INCHES (95 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) GENERALLY PREDICT NEAR-AVERAGE SSTS AROUND
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH JUNE 2024. BASED PRIMARILY ON THESE SST FORECASTS,
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO BE EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW, NEAR, AND
ABOVE-NORMAL FOR ALL THE ISLANDS THROUGH JUNE. HOWEVER, IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT
APPROXIMATELY HALF OF THE C3S (ALSO KNOWN AS THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE OR COPERNICUS) INPUTS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND OAHU. FOR THE JUNE 2024 PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOK, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED FOR ALL OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN, AS INDICATED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS, AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
LAST VESTIGES OF EL NINO OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO EC 75.4 0.4 B50 5.3 6.3 8.7
KAHULUI EC 78.0 0.5 B45 0.1 0.1 0.2
HONOLULU EC 80.3 0.4 B45 0.1 0.2 0.3
LIHUE EC 78.1 0.4 B40 1.1 1.3 1.6
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JJA 2024 - JJA 2025
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF THE LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE
CONUS AND ALASKA FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THE ENSO OUTLOOK AND OTHER CLIMATE
CONDITIONS RELEVANT TO THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK. EL NINO CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN, WHERE EQUATORIAL
SSTS ARE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE (THOUGH IN A SHALLOW SURFACE LAYER). BELOW AVERAGE
SSTS NOW PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC, FROM THE SURFACE
DOWN TO 100-150 METERS. THIS RELATIVELY COOL SUBSURFACE WATER EXTENDS WESTWARD
TO NEAR THE DATE LINE, AND IS BOUNDED ABOVE BY A SHALLOW SURFACE LAYER OF
RELATIVELY WARM SSTS. LOW-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE EASTERLY OVER THE WESTERN
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE NEAR AVERAGE.
TROPICAL CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND
INDONESIA, CONSISTENT WITH THE ONGOING TRANSITION FROM EL NIñO TO
ENSO-NEUTRAL. THIS TRANSITION IS LIKELY TO WRAP UP IN THE NEXT MONTH. THERE IS
A 49% CHANCE OF A LA NINA DEVELOPING WITHIN THE JJA (JUNE-JULY-AUGUST) SEASON,
AND A 69% CHANCE OF LA NINA DEVELOPING WITHIN THE JAS (JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER)
SEASON.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR LIHUE,
AND EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR HONOLULU, KAHULUI AND THE BIG ISLAND IN JJA 2024, CONSISTENT WITH
MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME, C3S, AND THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG
(CA) TOOL. FOR JAS, EC IS STILL FAVORED FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND KAHULUI, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INDICATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CHAIN. BY ASO,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR ALL ISLANDS, WHICH CONTINUES INTO
OND BASED ON THE SAME SET OF MODELS AND TOOLS. THE FORECAST SIGNAL WEAKENS AT
LONGER LEADS, THEREFORE EC IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII BEGINNING IN NDJ
(NOVEMBER-DECEMBER-JANUARY) 2024-25 AND EXTENDING THROUGH LONGER LEADS.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST OVER THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND) FROM JJA 2024 TO OND
(OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER) 2024, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODEL FORECASTS. DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS, EC IS INDICATED
OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BEGINNING IN NDJ 2024-25 AND CONTINUING THROUGH
LONGER LEADS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 2024 EC 75.2 0.4 B60 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2024 EC 76.1 0.4 B60 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2024 A40 76.4 0.4 B60 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2024 A40 76.2 0.4 B50 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2024 A40 75.5 0.4 B40 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2024 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2025 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2025 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2025 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2025 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2025 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2025 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2025 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 2024 EC 77.7 0.4 B60 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2024 EC 79.0 0.4 B60 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2024 A40 79.4 0.4 B55 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2024 A50 79.1 0.4 B50 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2024 A50 77.8 0.4 B40 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2024 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2025 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2025 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2025 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2025 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2025 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2025 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2025 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 2024 EC 79.9 0.4 B60 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2024 A40 81.3 0.4 B50 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2024 A50 81.7 0.4 B50 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2024 A55 81.4 0.4 B45 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2024 A55 80.0 0.4 B40 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2024 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2025 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2025 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2025 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2025 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2025 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2025 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2025 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 2024 A40 77.7 0.4 B60 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2024 A40 79.0 0.3 B50 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2024 A50 79.4 0.3 B50 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2024 A55 79.1 0.3 B45 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2024 A60 77.8 0.3 B40 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2024 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2025 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2025 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2025 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2025 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2025 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2025 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2025 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
ANOMALIES ARE BASED ON THE 1991-2020 MEANS.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE PREDICTED PARAMETER WILL
FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIC IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULATE TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW NORMAL
CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD, OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO, THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCES OF THE NEW SET NET MONTH, ON THU JUN 20, 2024.
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