454
FXUS01 KWBC 170759
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2024
VALID 12Z FRI MAY 17 2024 - 12Z SUN MAY 19 2024
...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SPREADS INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA FRIDAY...
...WET START TO THE WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. AS WELL
AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS...
...SWELTERING HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS INTO THIS WEEKEND...
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S., WITH THE CHANCE FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TO FOCUS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTH
THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND TO
THE GULF COAST. STARTING ALONG THE GULF COAST, ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 3/4) HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA WHERE A
COMPLEX OF ORGANIZED, HEAVY DOWNPOUR-PRODUCING STORMS IS FORECAST
OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
LOCATION OF THESE ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCED BY
THE STORMS ONGOING OVERNIGHT, BRINGING HIGHER UNCERTAINTY AND
HIGHLIGHTING THE IMPORTANCE OF REMAINING AWARE OF THE MOST CURRENT
FORECAST. TO THE NORTH, AN ACTIVE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL HELP
ENCOURAGE A COUPLE ADDITIONAL AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL
FOCUSED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS THE
LOWER OHIO/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH LOCATIONS FOR THE
THREAT OF SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. STORM
CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY, BRINGING THE FOCUS
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SOUTH
ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA AND LINGERING ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
INCLUDED HERE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHERE HIGHER
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS MOST LIKELY TO LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS
DAYS' RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER-MIDWEST BY FRIDAY EVENING. GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, WITH THE MORE MODERATE RAIN MOST
LIKELY NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY. COOLER CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SNOW MIXING IN THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THOUGH NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF
INTO SATURDAY AS THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CANADA. HOWEVER, TO THE SOUTHWEST, SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY ALONG A TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND VERY MUCH
SUMMER-LIKE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO
THE WEEKEND. FORECAST HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID-90S IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE MID 90S TO MID-100S IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS, POTENTIALLY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL BRING HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-100S
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE
NOT ONLY INTO NEXT WEEK BUT INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS WELL. WHILE
NOT QUITE AS HOT, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE AND
SUMMER-LIKE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- TO UPPER 80S FORECAST. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY. VARIABLE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S., WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS INTO THE 70S
FOR MOST OF THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THOUGH PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SEE A COOL DOWN INTO THE 60S SATURDAY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONDITIONS FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, THOUGH A QUICK WARM-UP INTO THE
MID-80S TO 90S WILL COME SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE
WEST, CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND ALONG COASTAL CALIFORNIA, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER, ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE INTERIOR,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE GREAT BASIN, 80S FOR THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS, AND 90S TO LOW 100S FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
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