846
FXUS01 KWBC 181720
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
119 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2024
VALID 00Z SUN MAY 19 2024 - 00Z TUE MAY 21 2024
...INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREATS OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...SWELTERING HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS, BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...
STORMY CONDITIONS SHOULD WIND DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHILE PERSISTING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA
THROUGH SUNDAY. ATTENTION SHIFTS TOWARD THE CENTRAL U.S. ON SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE
WEST. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THREAT BEING MARGINAL (AT LEAST 5%), THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING GUSTS, LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE
ALL POSSIBLE ACCORDING TO THE SPC. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA,
KANSAS, SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI. HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
INTENSE SUMMER-LIKE HEAT WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND, AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 90S FOR FLORIDA WITH MID-90S TO MID-100S IN TEXAS,
POTENTIALLY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING LEVELS. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES WILL SOAR TO NEAR 110 IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
WHILE NOT QUITE AS HOT, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE MORE BROADLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND,
PARTICULARLY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WHERE HIGHS
IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 WILL BE COMMON. HIGHS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST, WITH 70S AND 80S IN THE GREAT
BASIN/INTERIOR CALIFORNIA AND 90S TO LOW 100S IN THE DESERT
SOUTHEAST. MORE TEMPERATE, BELOW AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST, WITH 50S AND 60S IN NEW ENGLAND AND
60S AND 70S INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ALSO BE COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S EXPECTED HERE AS WELL. VARIABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO ONGOING STORMS, WITH MAINLY 80S
EXPECTED.
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